ARIS L4 — DAILY VERDICT TIMELINE

15 SIGNALS · CRS v4 · BULL ENGINE v3 · 11 REGIME · PHASE 5 NEURON · 4-AXIS VERDICT

"L4 = ARIS의 confluence layer. 15 signals voting × W3 empirical × K=6 BIC asymmetric.
L3, L5보다 먼저 생긴 layer (CAT level → Neuron level 진화). 기초 탄탄한 본체."
— Captain V1

L4-1 W3 — 32y

BP — 32y (K=6 stages)

RRM — Recent Regime Mirror (32y)

L4-1 CONFLUENCE — 15 SIGNALS × W3 × K=6 BIC

Method D Hybrid (Weighted Sum + Confidence Gate) · CAT 40 YC = 32y 최강 (+0.233)

      agg_score W3:
      --
      Mode:
      --
    

K=6 BIC Mode Bucket (Bull asymmetric: Bull 39.13% / Bear 4.72%)

15 Signals (T1 Base + T2 Stage 8 + T3 H7 + Cross-tab)

L4-2 BULL ENGINE v3 + CRS v4

BP (CD-41 OOS 88%) + Stage K=6 BIC (CD-47) + CRS v4 4 YC ANY (CD-43, 14/14 events)

      BP:
      --
      Stage:
      --
    

CRS v4 — 4 Channel State (Captain CD-43 정합)

PHASE 5 NEURON-LEVEL (CD-46) + 4-AXIS

3-Level Hierarchy (294 Neuron / 49 CAT / System) + Divergence + CAT vote

L0 Neuron
--
L1 CAT
--
L2 System
--

CAT 49 Vote Distribution

      -- Bull /
      -- Neutral /
      -- Bear
      · Divergence: --
    

      049 CAT (total)
    

4-Axis Verdict Cross-validation

종합 4-AXIS VERDICT + 진단

Bull axis count + Bear axis count → STRONG_BULL / BULL / WEAK_BULL / NEUTRAL / CONFLICT / WEAK_BEAR / BEAR / STRONG_BEAR

L4 4-AXIS VERDICT

BULL Axis Count

/4 axis

BEAR Axis Count

/4 axis

S4DV Daily Verdict — Today Market Noteworthy Findings + History (Captain 5/17 영구 누적)

Today S4DV Findings (S4DV main page 동일)

Today Market Noteworthy Findings

CONFLICT 패턴 DETECTED — Captain V1 V-bounce signal

4 의사 중 일부 Bull, 일부 Bear → 의견 갈림.
32y 5/5 catch: Lehman / GFC Bottom / COVID / 2022 Inflation / Tariff Bottom — 모두 V-bounce signal.
현재 vote: 2 Bull / 1 Neutral / 1 Bear.

32y Daily History (누적)

Total records: 2

Bull verdicts: 2

Bear verdicts: 0

CONFLICT detected: 2

최근 60 days (역순, recent first). 매일 build_aris_l4_s4dv.py 실행 시 자동 누적.

Date	Verdict	Vote B/N/Br	CONFLICT	CRS	Bull Stage (BP)	L0	UV Forecast
2026-05-18	WEAK_BULL	2/1/1	CONFLICT	NORMAL	BULL_HIGH (0.565)	-0.138	Maturity Pullback → V-bounce 회복
2026-05-15	WEAK_BULL	2/1/1	CONFLICT	NORMAL	BULL_TOP (0.589)	-0.153	Maturity Pullback → V-bounce 회복

Source: Pipeline/L5_outputs/s4dv_daily_history.jsonl · S4DV build (Step 21g2) 매일 자동 append (영구)

S5DV — Synapse 5 Doctors Verdict

S5DV Sub-pages