Today
2026-05-22
5/11 EOD partial (BP)
Cell Ticker ⓘ
C26L
C26_sub1
C2=C2 · 6=sub6 · L=Liquidity dominant
Verdict
WEAK_BULL
L4 4 Lens avg +0.20
ASI ⓘ
+0.2648
Bull-active · directional
GEX (SPX) ⓘ
+$6.38B
SqzM · 2026-05-20
1 TODAY 시장 지표 + VERDICTInternal / External Split · Maturity Pullback → 회복 불확실
49 CAT 평균 -0.077 (Bear) vs 294 Neuron 평균 -0.188 (Bear) — Divergence +0.111. 표면과 내부 분기 = 32y CONFLICT pattern 정합 (Lehman/GFC/COVID/2022 Inflation/2025 Tariff 모두 catch).
표면 BULL axis (master_db today)
v_l42 Bull Engine : +0.30 BULL (BP BULL_MID)v_l41 Confluence : +0.00
v_crs CRS state : +0.50 RECOVERY
Source-level Top 20 : 11 Bull / 9 Bear
Cell character : C26L (C26_sub1)
DataLeads : LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02
본질: Liquidity-driven Bull + Equity 약세 (Fed RRP + Margin 활성 + Tech weakness)
Member Regime : LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02
= Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)
내부 BEAR axis (master_db today)
v_p5 Phase 5 L0 : -0.188 BEARmaster_db level_0 : -0.188 (정합)
CAT distribution : Bull 11 / Neutral 15 / Bear 23 Bear 우세
Divergence : +0.111 HIGH
4 Lens WA (4 Lens Weighted Avg) : +0.15 → l4_verdict BULL
Verdict: Internal / External Split · Maturity Pullback → 회복 불확실.
표면 Bull cycle BULL_MID + 내부 BEAR (L0 -0.188) = Maturity Pullback 진입.
Bull cycle 385 days (mean 274 × 1.40 = MATURE 통과).
→ Forecast 60d -8.3% / 250d +23.2% (Cell C26L 403 samples, 2025+ ERA)
→ V-bounce trigger ETA: 47-60일 (maturity-based)
→ Forecast 60d -8.3% / 250d +23.2% (Cell C26L 403 samples, 2025+ ERA)
→ V-bounce trigger ETA: 47-60일 (maturity-based)
FORECAST 자세한 분석 — Pullback / V-bounce timeline
| Today (시작점) | 2026-05-22 · Cell C26L · Maturity 1.40x |
| 저점 ETA (Pullback bottom) | 47-60 trading days 후 (≈ 2026-07-26 ~ 2026-08-14) |
| 60d Pullback window | 2026-05-22 ~ 2026-08-14 · -8.3% (sign 13% 약세 확률) |
| 250d V-bounce target | 2027-05-07 · +23.2% (sign 49% 강세 확률) |
| Member Regime | LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02 = Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02) (12 prefix 풀이 — Regime page) |
해석: Today (2026-05-22)부터 약 3개월 동안 ASI/RRM Divergence HIGH zone 통과 → 47-60 trading days 후 (≈ 2026-07-26 ~ 2026-08-14)에 단기 저점 도달 → 250d horizon (2027-05-07) V-bounce target. 32y similar cases (sign 49%) = 양봉 회복 confidence.
2 SOURCE 분석 — 왜 이 진단인가ASI (z score) + RRM (Direction × Strength) — 두 metric 통합 view
신경망 활성도 상위 source neurons. Bull/Bear count + 카테고리 분포 추적. Ⓟ = Pruning candidate (|z| < 1.5σ, synapse 약화).
Top 3 Categories
| # | Category | N |
|---|
Top 5 Sub-Source Neurons
Bull 11 / Bear 9
Top 20 Active Neurons (ASI · raw signed z)
Direction × Strength (RRM · phase5 contrarian, -tanh)
direction column: + Bull-active / − Bear-active (contrarian mirror).
strength = magnitude (0~1). |direction × strength| 큰 neuron = strong contribution. Ⓟ = Pruning (|dir| < 0.3 또는 strength < 0.3).
BULL-side (direction-applied)
BEAR-side (direction-applied)
3 PAST FLOW — T-60 ~ T-4 trajectorymaster_db.csv 실측
7 timepoints. CRS / Cell transition / 4 Lens 변화 추적.
| Date | Cell | Member Regime | 5 Drs | ASI (HAFS) | RRM | BP | CRS | Verdict |
|---|
4 HISTORICAL ANALOGS32y similar (294-dim cosine, ERA-conditional)
Phase 3.5 v10 — last 250d 제외 (lookback bias 회피). Top 1 per ERA.
5 FORECAST MULTI-WINDOWCell C26L · 4 ERA × 7 horizons · Internal Timeline 정합
Phase 3.5 v10 cell forward returns by ERA. Last 250d 제외 (lookback bias 회피).
6 CELL × CELL TRANSITIONPhase 3.3 Markov-style
Cell character ≠ Price direction: 60d DR4M 32% stay = "defensive rotation character 유지",
BUT SPY 60d -11.5% (Pos 0%, MDD -18%) = "그 character 안에서도 가격 하락".
| Horizon | Top 1 (확률) | Top 2 (확률) | Top 3 (확률) |
|---|
7 L4 VERDICT — 5 DOCTORS VOTEmaster_db.csv multi-axis
| Doctor | Source | Vote | Direction | Status |
|---|
4 Lens WA (4 Lens Weighted Avg): +0.15 · l4_verdict: BULL · Bull 2 / Neutral 3 / Bear 0
v_l11 DEPRECATED (CD-51 5/9) — 4 active Lens 운영 · 4 Lens WA 계산은 4 axes 평균 (v_l11=0 포함, legacy compat)
v_l11 DEPRECATED (CD-51 5/9) — 4 active Lens 운영 · 4 Lens WA 계산은 4 axes 평균 (v_l11=0 포함, legacy compat)
8 ASSET RISK PROFILE — 29 자산 (Long / Short)Cell C26L 32y · PRELIMINARY
참고용 — Engine 3 완성 시까지 미완 (preliminary).
현재 표시 = E1 (294 macro neurons) cell-distribution 평균. 실제 stock-level signal은 E3 (F-Tier 1500 stocks) Fundamental + Position Engine 완성 후 산출.
LONG Top 5 (median +250d)
| Asset | +60d | +250d | Pos% | MDD |
|---|
SHORT 후보 (60d 가장 약세)
| Asset | +30d | +60d | +250d | MDD |
|---|
▶ 29 자산 × 7 Horizons Full Table (Internal Timeline §10 정합)
각 자산별 cell forward returns (Pre_2015 / 2015-2019 / 2020-2024 / 2025+ 전체 sample mean). 5d ~ 250d 7 horizons 표시. 단위: % (mean return).
9 PIT VALIDATION + ERA RELIABILITY검증 신뢰도
PIT (Phase 3.5 v10)
1/1 prediction (2020-2024, 100d): +9.15% / Sign 83%Actual 5/8 (88 trading days): +8.64% / Sign 79%
오차: Mean 0.5pp · Sign 4pp · P10 안에 worst (-26%)
= Wall Street Tier 1 차별화 정량 검증
ERA Reliability
DR4M cell distribution (n=87):PRE_2015 : 1 / 87 (1.1%)
2020-2024: 78 / 87 (89.7% ERA_REPLICATE)
2025+ : 8 / 87 (9.2%)
= post-COVID V-bounce pattern 일반화 위험 caveat
10 ARIS PROPOSITION + 종합 결론 + TGNEngine 1 Verdict Synthesis · Horizon-based actionable
10.1 ARIS Proposition — Horizon-based actionable (Today 2026-05-22 기준 dynamic)
10.2 종합 결론 — 1~10 항목 통합 (Unified Verdict)
Today (2026-05-22) 종합 진단:
Cell C26L (C26_sub1) · Verdict Internal / External Split · Maturity Pullback → 회복 불확실 · BP 0.5481 (BULL_MID, 385d cycle, Maturity 1.40) · ASI -0.1878 (294 neuron mean) · Divergence 0.111 HIGH
→ 49 CAT 평균 -0.077 (Bear) vs 294 Neuron 평균 -0.188 (Bear) — Divergence +0.111. 표면과 내부 분기 = 32y CONFLICT pattern 정합 (Lehman/GFC/COVID/2022 Inflation/2025 Tariff 모두 catch).
→ 단기 60d (2026-05-22 → 2026-08-14) -8.3% (sign 13%) 조정 zone 진입 후 250d (2027-05-07 도달) 평균 +23.2% BUT sign 49% (coin flip 이하) — 회복 불확실 · 저점 ETA: 47-60 trading days 후 (≈ 2026-07-26 ~ 2026-08-14)
= Cell character + Direction + Top driver (Source 분석) + Multi-Window forecast (60d/250d) 통합 자동 generated
Cell C26L (C26_sub1) · Verdict Internal / External Split · Maturity Pullback → 회복 불확실 · BP 0.5481 (BULL_MID, 385d cycle, Maturity 1.40) · ASI -0.1878 (294 neuron mean) · Divergence 0.111 HIGH
→ 49 CAT 평균 -0.077 (Bear) vs 294 Neuron 평균 -0.188 (Bear) — Divergence +0.111. 표면과 내부 분기 = 32y CONFLICT pattern 정합 (Lehman/GFC/COVID/2022 Inflation/2025 Tariff 모두 catch).
→ 단기 60d (2026-05-22 → 2026-08-14) -8.3% (sign 13%) 조정 zone 진입 후 250d (2027-05-07 도달) 평균 +23.2% BUT sign 49% (coin flip 이하) — 회복 불확실 · 저점 ETA: 47-60 trading days 후 (≈ 2026-07-26 ~ 2026-08-14)
= Cell character + Direction + Top driver (Source 분석) + Multi-Window forecast (60d/250d) 통합 자동 generated
10.3 TGN +30d ML Forecast — Captain V1 "Graph 96% alpha = Synapse"
TGN architecture: 2-layer SAGE + GRU · seq_len 60 · 40,712 params
Walk-forward edge: +9.06pp ~ +12.86pp (25/25 positive · 100%) Captain V1 정량 검증
Prediction: Neuron-level 30-day forecast → Cell post-hoc derivation
DLATW Stage 8 — Machine Learning · TGN ▶
Walk-forward edge: +9.06pp ~ +12.86pp (25/25 positive · 100%) Captain V1 정량 검증
Prediction: Neuron-level 30-day forecast → Cell post-hoc derivation
DLATW Stage 8 — Machine Learning · TGN ▶
전체 TGN +30d cell prediction + Top Bullish/Bearish neurons + Walk-forward Captain V1 narrative
(Captain 별도 컴퓨터 GAT training 진행 중 — F-Tier 1500 도착 시 per-stock direct prediction)
(Captain 별도 컴퓨터 GAT training 진행 중 — F-Tier 1500 도착 시 per-stock direct prediction)
Auto Narrative (Internal 교육) · 2026-05-22