ARIS Regime Decision : Data Leads All The Way

Date: 2026-05-22 · Cell: C26L (C26) · Member Regime: MIXED (Credit_MIXED) · Internal Regime: C26L_MIXED_2025+

Page 구성 (1~11 연속 + R-1~R-5 Reference + ML) · Main Flow (1-6: Snapshot · Methodology · Vocabulary · Decoding · Evidence · Forecast) · FRD (7-11: Today Coord · Analogs · Forward · 5 Step · 종합) · Reference (R-1 Catalog · R-2 L5 Ticker · HISTORY → R-3/R-4/R-5) · ML TGN

PART 1

Decision Flow — 7 Stages + 8 Machine Learning · TGN

SNAPSHOT → METHODOLOGY → VOCABULARY → DECODING → EVIDENCE → HISTORY → FORECAST → Machine Learning · TGN

SNAPSHOT — 지금 어디 있나

Today 좌표 인식 · 모든 후속 분석의 출발점

Today Cell

C26L

C26

Member Regime

MIXED

sub: Credit_MIXED

Source Dominance

Rates 25% + Global 13%

tag: mixed

ERA

2025+

★ Today Regime Identity — 5-Layer Synapse Snapshot

Member Regime

외부용 노출 (회원)

MIXED

Credit_MIXED

Internal Regime

Captain + Internal 분석 (Mixed 이유)

C26L_MIXED_2025+

Mixed 이유:
  • CAT votes 비대칭: Bull 11 / Bear 23 (차이 12)
  • L4 vs L5 Divergence +0.111 HIGH — 표면 (BULL) vs 내부 (RRM -0.188) 분기
  • L4 verdict (BULL) ≠ L5 direction (BEAR) — Cross-layer 불일치

Cell Ticker

4-letter (Phase 3.5 v13)

C26L

C26

Top 3 Firing

Today axon z 최강

NFP +6.66 · MAS_AAM_200_XLRE +3.56 · HY_TR -3.51

METHODOLOGY — 어떻게 측정했나

ARIS Cell-Track Regime Methodology · 신뢰성 근거

ARIS Cell-Track Regime Methodology

Neuron
294

→

CAT
49

→

Group
25

→

Cell
26 (K=26 BIC)

→

Track
8,386 days

→

Scenarios
6,069 시나리오

→

Regime
6 main · 24 sub

Cell = Status / Profile (snapshot) · Scenarios = L4 × L5 Cross-Layer 32y 누적 · Regime = Track of Cells (시간 sequence) · ▶ Methodology Detail

VOCABULARY — 무슨 언어로 말하나

12 Prefix Decoder + 26 Cell Full Description · regime의 알파벳

12 Prefix Decoder ▶ 어떻게 12개가 선정되었는지

각 prefix = 시장의 한 family. 어느 prefix가 Today driving하는지 진단. Top 3 강조.

EQ — Equity

3 Bull · 2 Bear

equity / stocks / sectors / styles / fac

MA — Macro

1 Bull · 0 Bear

macro economic data

LQ — Liquidity

0 Bull · 0 Bear

macro_liquidity

RT — Rates

0 Bull · 2 Bear

rates + yield_curve

PO — Positioning

1 Bull · 0 Bear

cot / positioning / sentiment

CR — Credit

0 Bull · 4 Bear

credit family

VL — Volatility

0 Bull · 1 Bear

volatility

CM — Commodity

0 Bull · 0 Bear

commodity + crypto

EN — Energy

1 Bull · 0 Bear

energy

GL — Global

0 Bull · 0 Bear

global

FX — Forex

0 Bull · 0 Bear

forex

X — Other (Mixed)

4 Bull · 0 Bear

breadth/mas/mas_aam/pmo/flow/ratios

26 Cell Full Description (Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC data-driven)

DataLeads PIT-safe naming . Today cell C26L highlighted.

C01A

C01

Mixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 15 + Commodity 10)

tag: mixed

C02X

C02

Rates 28%

tag: dom

C03X

C03

Credit 37%

tag: dom

C04Q

C04

Rates 38%

tag: dom

C05A

C05

Rates 29%

tag: dom

C06L

C06

Rates 28% + MAS_aam 14%

tag: dom

C07Q

C07

MAS_aam 55%

tag: pure

C08A

C08

Rates 23%

tag: mixed

C09Q

C09

Mixed (Commodity 21 + MAS_aam 20)

tag: mixed

C10A

C10

Positioning 18%

tag: mixed

C11Q

C11

MAS_aam 40%

tag: dom

C12Q

C12

Rates 36% + FinConditions 28%

tag: dom

C13A

C13

Equity 100% (n=4 small sample)

tag: pure

C14Q

C14

Cyclical 67%

tag: dom

C15Q

C15

Rates 33% + Credit 26%

tag: dom

C16Q

C16

Rates 25%

tag: mixed

C17X

C17

tag:

C18Q

C18

tag:

C19R

C19

Positioning 44% + Credit 33%

tag: dom

C20A

C20

Mixed (Commodity 16 + Positioning 15 + Forex 13)

tag: mixed

C21A

C21

Credit 22% + Volatility 13%

tag: mixed

C22Q

C22

Rates 19% + Macro 17%

tag: mixed

C23P

C23

Credit 26% + Macro 15%

tag: dom

C24A

C24

Macro 39% + FinConditions 22%

tag: dom

C25A

C25

MAS_aam 17% + Rates 17%

tag: mixed

C26L

C26

Rates 25% + Global 13%

tag: mixed

DECODING — 오늘 code는 무엇인가

5 Layers 판정 + L4 × L5 Cross-Layer Pattern · 진단의 본체

판정 방법 — L3-L5 + L4 × L5 Cross-Layer ▶ 5 Layers 각자 본격

ARIS Regime 판정은 5 layers cross-validation으로 진단. 각 layer가 독립적으로 측정 → 종합 합의 시 strong signal · 분기 시 mixed regime.

L3 SSJ

12 stages SOMA

Today: cell C26L

L4-1 W3

15 signals · K=6 BIC

Mode: ?

L4-2 BP

Bull Stage K=6 BIC

BP: 0.550 · BULL_MID

L4-3 kNN

29 assets × Multi-window

Combined Hit 75.6%

L5 Cell+Phase5

K=26 BIC + Neuron L0

L0: -0.188

L4 × L5 Cross-Layer Pattern — 32y 6,069 Predictions

Today pattern: L4 BULL × L5 BEAR (L4BULL_L5BEAR) → 32y historical n=3,591 cases.

Pattern	N (32y)	Sign Hit	Actual Mean	해석
L4 BULL × L5 BULL	1,255	74.9%	+0.04%	강한 Bull 신호 (32y 가장 흔함)
L4 BEAR × L5 BULL	1,128	58.6%	+0.02%	60D V-bounce paradox (표면 Bear, 내부 Bull)
L4 BULL × L5 BEAR TODAY	3,591	76.7%	+0.03%	표면 Bull / 내부 Bear (60D V-bounce pre-event)
L4 BEAR × L5 BEAR	95	56.8%	+0.02%	진짜 Bear (정합)

Captain V1 "Cell은 통과하는 문 (Bull bias)" 정량 검증: L4 BEAR × L5 BULL (1,128 cases) 이 L4 BEAR × L5 BEAR (95 cases) 보다 11.9배 흔함.
→ Today 선정 = L4BULL_L5BEAR (3,591 cases, sign hit 76.7%, actual mean +0.03%) · 위 테이블 row에 자동 border + bold 적용 ✓.

자세히: L3 SSJ · L4 S4DV · L5 SPRC 또는 우측 [Click] ▶ 5 Layers 각자 본격 panel

EVIDENCE — 신호 일치/분기

5 Step 종합 진단 · Today Market Noteworthy Findings (5 items) · Cell + Track + L4×L5 + Top firing + Forecast

Today Market Noteworthy Findings — 5 Step 종합

구분	★ Thesis	Details	Remark
(1) Today 진단 Cell + Regime	★ "32y 중간 zone — 특정 시기"	Cell C26L (C26) · Source Rates 25% + Global 13% · Member MIXED. 32y 위치: 403d (4.81%, 8위/26) · streak 3d.	✓ SNAPSHOT
(2) Track 진행 Previous → Today	★ "Cell 전환 직후 초기 (regime shift active)"	이전 cell C11 (2d dwell) → Today C26 (3d 진행). 32y total 2,609 synaptic transmissions / 197 unique paths.	✓ TRACK
(3) L4×L5 Cross-Layer Pattern recognition	★ "Pattern L4BULL_L5BEAR 정합 (32y n=3,591)"	L4 = BULL · L5 (Phase 5 L0) = -0.188. L4×L5 분기 vs 정합 — Captain V1 cross-validation.	✓ CROSS-VAL
(4) Top Firing Cat votes + prefix	★ "Bear 우세 — directional signal"	Top 3 prefix: EQ (5) · CR (4) · X (4). Cat votes: Bull 11 · Neutral 15 · Bear 23.	✓ FIRING
(5) Forecast UV + Multi-Window	★ "Maturity Pullback → 회복 불확실"	UV verdict (60D 기준): Maturity Pullback → 회복 불확실. BP 0.550 · Stage BULL_MID · CRS NORMAL · Div +0.111. Multi-Window Top-1: 15D C01 (17%) · 30D C01 (16%) · 60D C06 (12%) · 자세히 ↓ #6 FORECAST.	✓ FORECAST

FORECAST — 어디로 가나

Multi-Window Strategy Matrix + 10 Decision Rules + 3-horizon verdict + 4 ERA Forward Returns · 미래 방향 진단

Future Regime Forecast — Track-based + Phase 3.5 v10 4 ERA

Today cell C26L에서 출발하는 Synaptic Transmission (Captain 4/30 영구) + Phase 3.5 v10 4 ERA forward returns. TGN +30d Neuron-level cross-validation은 ↓ Stage 8 Machine Learning · TGN에서 본격.

① Multi-Window Strategy Matrix (Today Cell C26, 32y Walk-Forward)

Today cell C26 distribution — 각 horizon별 forecast scenario + sign hit + 32y actual mean + Captain 5/9 Strategy. 11 windows (5d ~ 250d) 본격 측정.

Window	Forecast	SignHit	Actual Mean	Strategy
Strategy Matrix data 미가용

10 Decision Rules (Captain 5/9 Decision Tree, expandable)

Strategy	조건
HOLD_ADD_LONG	STRONG_BULL forecast + sign_hit ≥ 70%
HOLD	BULL forecast + sign_hit ≥ 60%
WAIT	NEUTRAL + window ≤ 15 + sign_hit ≥ 70%
HEDGE_DEFENSIVE	BEAR/STRONG_BEAR + window ≤ 30 + sign_hit ≥ 50%
STRONG_BUY_DIP	BEAR/STRONG_BEAR + window ≥ 60 + sign_hit < 30 + actual > 5%
BUY_DIP	BEAR/STRONG_BEAR + window ≥ 60 + sign_hit < 30
FORECAST_REVERSAL	BEAR/STRONG_BEAR + window ≤ 30 + sign_hit < 30
UNCERTAIN	NEUTRAL + 30 ≤ window ≤ 100 + sign_hit < 40
BULL_WEAK	BULL + window ≤ 15 + sign_hit < 50
OBSERVE	Default (no strong signal)

② 종합 결론 + Action (단기 / 중기 / 장기)

11 windows 종합 → 3 horizons majority verdict. Captain 5/9 Decision Tree 기반.

단기 (1-3주, 5-15d)

(no data)

중기 (1-3개월, 30-100d)

(no data)

장기 (6-12개월, 180-250d)

(no data)

③ Asset Action — L1-L3 (Internal · E3 도착 시 L4-L5 expand)

L1 Regime Bias	LONG bias · Bull BULL_MID · Maturity 0.00x · Divergence +0.111 → 단기 hedge 권장
L2 Sector (11 SPDR)	Long 250d (accumulate): XLRE · XLP · XLU (XLRE +14.4% / XLP +14.4% / XLU +13.9%, hit 100%) Short 60d (hedge): XLE · XLF · XLB (XLE +0.2% / XLF +1.1% / XLB +1.4%, hit 70%)
L3 Top Stocks (14 universe)	Long 250d: LLY · MSFT · AMZN (LLY +36.8% / MSFT +26.6% / AMZN +17.5%, hit 100%) Short 60d: ABBV · GS · DE (ABBV -7.9% / GS -1.8% / DE -0.9%, hit 20%)

V-bounce setup (60D): (no overlap today) = Long 250d 후보 + Short 60d 위험 동시 → 단기 hedge + 장기 accumulate 전략 (Captain 30년 직관 정합).

한계 (Internal use only): L4 (F-Tier 1500 stocks specific picks) = E3 + F-Tier 도착 시 · L5 (Position sizing + Entry/Exit timing) = E3 본격 · 현재 L3 = n=5 cosine analogs, 방향성 참조용

④ Multi-Window Cell Forecast — Synaptic Transmission Probability (Atlas SSOT · 2026-05-21 reference, n_match 697)

Window	Top 3 Next Cells (probability)
1d	C26 (55%) / C01 (17%) / C02 (11%)
5d	C26 (27%) / C01 (21%) / C02 (16%)
15d	C01 (17%) / C02 (15%) / C10 (11%)
30d	C01 (16%) / C10 (12%) / C06 (9%)
60d	C06 (12%) / C01 (12%) / C02 (12%)
100d	C01 (17%) / C02 (11%) / C16 (10%)
250d	C01 (15%) / C06 (13%) / C02 (10%)

Interpretation:
  • 단기 (1d-15d): C26 자체 유지 가능성 + 인접 cell 전이 mixed. Today cell stable 상태.
  • 중기 (30d-100d): Top 1 → C01 · 30d 윈도우에서 cell distribution 분산 → trend shift 가능.
  • 장기 (250d): Top 1 → C01 · 32y same-cell forward 평균 = Bull 회복 base.
  • Captain V1 정합: Track-based propagation = "Cell A 출발 → 32y empirical 가장 자주 가는 next cell" 본체.

⑤ Phase 3.5 v10 — 4 ERA Forward Returns (32y, static · Captain CD-49)

Each ERA의 cell-level forward mean return + sign hit. Today ERA 2025+ highlighted. ERA-aware framework는 시장 진화 흡수 (CD-31 정합).

ERA	Mean Return	Sign Hit %
PRE_2015	+0.00%	0.0%
2015-2019	+0.00%	0.0%
2020-2024	+0.00%	0.0%
2025+ Today	+0.00%	0.0%

ERA 해석 — 왜 4 ERAs인가:
• PRE_2015: 전통적 cycle (QE 전, structural high vol) · 0 days
• 2015-2019: Post-QE 안정 expansion (낮은 inflation + dovish Fed) · 0 days
• 2020-2024: COVID + Inflation + Recovery (regime 변동 폭) · 0 days
• 2025+ (Today): Tariff cycle + AI Bubble (new regime) · 0 days
→ ERA별 forward return 다름 = ARIS ERA-aware framework 정합 (CD-31). → 같은 cell이라도 ERA마다 outcome 다름 → "시대 진화 흡수" 본체.

Machine Learning · TGN (+30d Neuron-level Cross-Validation)는 ↓ Stage 8 — Machine Learning · TGN에서 본격 분석. Captain V1 "Graph 96% alpha = Synapse" 정량 검증 + Walk-forward 25/25 positive + Wall Street Tier 1 차별화.

PART 2

Final Regime Determination — Phase 3.5 v10 (Captain V1 본체)

① Today Coordinate · ② 32y Analogs · ③ Forward Outcome · ④ 5 Step · ⑤ 종합 진단 · Reference Library

FRD

TODAY FINAL REGIME DETERMINATION

"Today와 비슷한 32y 시점 + Forward outcome + 5 Step cross-validation" · Captain V1 본체 (외부 이론 X)

7
Today Coordinate
5-Layer Identity · Cell · Ticker · DataLeads  · Member  · Internal

        Layer 1 — Cell
        C26 (Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC, internal cluster)
      
        Layer 2 — Ticker
        C26L (4-letter, cell_ticker_mapping)
      
        Layer 3 — DataLeads PIT-safe 
        LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02 (DataLeads PIT-safe · 내부 Regime)
      
        Layer 4 — Member Regime 
         MIXED / Credit_MIXED (6 main + 24 sub · Tier 메시지용)
      
        Layer 5 — Internal (보조)
        C26L_MIXED_2025+ (ERA × Cell × Direction · 52 unique)
      
         Decoded
        Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)
      
         Independent axis
         CRS NORMAL · ERA 2025+ · Maturity 0.00x · Divergence +0.111

32y Historical Analogs

Today와 가장 비슷한 시점 · 4 ERA × Top 5 = 20 analogs · Cosine 294-dim sign-applied

Today와 가장 비슷한 시점 (Today ERA 2025+): 2025-01-22 (cos 0.310) · 2025-01-21 (cos 0.304)

4 ERA × Top 5 = 20 analogs 전체 (Lookback bias 회피 · last 250d 제외)

2025+ Today ERA

가장 가까운 ERA

#	Date	cos sim
#1	2025-01-22	0.310
#2	2025-01-21	0.304
#3	2025-01-23	0.302
#4	2025-02-11	0.299
#5	2025-02-10	0.299

2020-2024

COVID + Inflation cycle

#	Date	cos sim
#1	2021-11-01	0.539
#2	2021-11-03	0.536
#3	2021-11-08	0.534
#4	2021-11-15	0.531
#5	2021-11-09	0.528

2015-2019

Post-QE 안정 expansion

#	Date	cos sim
#1	2018-01-23	0.504
#2	2018-01-22	0.503
#3	2018-01-24	0.488
#4	2018-01-19	0.480
#5	2018-01-26	0.479

PRE_2015

전통적 cycle (QE 전)

#	Date	cos sim
#1	2007-06-15	0.439
#2	2007-07-06	0.436
#3	2007-06-14	0.426
#4	2007-06-18	0.425
#5	2007-06-05	0.424

Forward Outcome

ERA × Multi-Window · 60-250d · Mean + P10 + Worst (Captain 5/9)

ERA	60d	100d	180d	250d
2025+	-8.3% / sign 21% P10 -27% · worst -29%	-0.6% / sign 57% P10 -28% · worst -49%	+11.3% / sign 80% P10 -28% · worst -55%	+23.2% / sign 92% P10 -27% · worst -29%
2020-2024	-1.5% / sign 39% P10 -18% · worst -22%	+4.1% / sign 49% P10 -23% · worst -27%	-5.3% / sign 38% P10 -38% · worst -50%	-3.9% / sign 39% P10 -44% · worst -51%
2015-2019	-5.4% / sign 14% P10 -17% · worst -27%	-1.6% / sign 44% P10 -21% · worst -27%	+4.6% / sign 57% P10 -21% · worst -28%	-2.3% / sign 28% P10 -26% · worst -42%
PRE_2015	+0.3% / sign 47% P10 -14% · worst -16%	+8.2% / sign 59% P10 -14% · worst -17%	-5.5% / sign 27% P10 -22% · worst -36%	-1.5% / sign 51% P10 -28% · worst -53%

저점 평균 (Today ERA 2025+ 60d): 43일 후 · Phase 3.5 v10 calc method = ARIS_REGIME_CALCULATION_METHOD_20260509.md

5 Step Cross-Validation

L4-1 · L4-2 · L4-3 · L5 · CRS · 표면 vs 내부 합의/분기

Consensus: Bull 1 / Mixed 1 / Bear 1 · L4×L5 pattern: L4BULL_L5BEAR (32y n=3,591, sign 76.7%) · Divergence: +0.111 (HIGH)

5 Step 상세 (L4-1 / L4-2 / L4-3 / L5 / CRS)

Step	Layer	Today Value	Direction
Step 1	L4-1 W3 — 15 signals · K=6 BIC mode	?	BULL
Step 2	L4-2 Bull Engine — BP · Stage K=6 BIC	BP 0.550 · BULL_MID	MIXED
Step 3	L4-3 4-layer kNN — 29 assets × Multi-window (Hit 75.6%)	U/F/D split	MIXED
Step 4	L5 Phase 5 L0 — 294 neuron equal-weight	L0 -0.188	BEAR
Step 5	CRS state — CD-43 v4 · 4-channel event gate	NORMAL	NORMAL

종합 진단

★ Final Regime Determination · Phase 3.5 v10 본체 · Captain V1 + Quant 통합

구분	★ Thesis	Details	Remark
(1) Cell × Stage 결합 ARIS 최종 결론	★ "C26 + BULL_MID 결합"	L5 Cell C26 (C26L) · L4 Stage BULL_MID · BP 0.550. 156 결합 진단 (26 cells × 6 stages) 중 today 위치.	✓ CAPTAIN V1
(2) 32y Historical 정합 Atlas SSOT n_match	★ "Strong baseline · 32y robust sample"	32y same-cell n_match 697 days · SSOT date 2026-05-21. ERA 2025+ conditional forward outcome 산출 (CD-31 era-aware).	✓ DATA-DRIVEN
(3) Multi-Window Forecast 11 horizons forward	★ "단기 (1d-15d) + 중기 (30d-60d) + 장기 (100d-250d) propagation 동시"	Atlas SSOT 11 windows × top 3 next cells (FRD #10 본격) · ERA conditional probabilities. Captain V1 CD-31 multi-window 정합 (단일 window X).	✓ CD-31
(4) 5 Step Consensus L3 + L4-1/2/3 + L5	★ "Multi-Layer cross-validation (단독 X)"	L3 HAFS · L4-1 Confluence BULL · L4-2 BP 0.550 (BULL_MID) · L4-3 kNN 75.6% · L5 Cell + Phase 5 L0 -0.188.	✓ 5 STEP
(5) Captain V1 본체 Synapse Network	★ "ARIS = Biological Neural Network — Synapse Memory direct read"	Captain V1 4/30: "Fire together, wire together" (Hebbian) + "Markov 폐기 → Synaptic Transmission". ARIS의 진정한 alpha = Graph (Synapse Network 96%) · TGN +30d (FRD #17 본격).	✓ CAPTAIN V1

★

TODAY REGIME · DataLeads PIT-safe

11번 종합 진단 → Final Output (회원 노출 본체)

DataLeads Code

LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02

Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)

32y N

400

days

Tightness

VERY LOOSE

silhouette

Purity

11%

cluster

Bull Match

5/16

strict / relaxed

Bear Match

27/65

strict / relaxed

식별
Cell C26 · Ticker C26L · Member MIXED

회원 노출 위치
Dashboard · Lyra · Executive Terminal · 12 prefix decoder + 26 cells × source

Captain 5/8 Cell_3Layer_Evaluation — TIGHT + purity ≥ 80% = high-confidence cluster · "Data Leads All The Way" (Captain V1 5/15 영구)

R-1

REGIME REFERENCE LIBRARY

보조 자료 — Catalog 외부/내부 · 26 Cell Ticker · 32y Distribution · Top 20 Streaks · 12 Prefix Decoder · DataLeads quality

Regime Catalog — 외부용 / 내부용 구분 + Cell Ticker ARIS_Regime_Catalog_v2 (5/12, 8,386 days)

외부용 (회원 노출)

Today member regime:

MIXED

Credit_MIXED

구조: top1_cat × direction

예시: MAS_aam_BULL / Rates_MIXED / Credit_BEAR

총 unique: 8 종 (master_db.regime 32y observed)

특징: 시장 segment 명칭 (직관적, 회원 친화)

내부용 (Captain + ARIS 분석)

Today internal regime:

C26L_MIXED_2025+

C26_2025+

구조: Cell ticker × direction × ERA

예시: CN0X_BULL / DR4M_BULL_2025+ / SB1R_BEAR

총 unique: 168 종 (Cell × direction × ERA, 32y observed combinations)

특징: Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC + 4-letter ticker (DataLeads PIT-safe)

26 Cell Ticker Complete Reference (Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC)

26 cells × 4-letter ticker × Top CAT × tag · 32y 빈도 순 정렬 · Today cell highlighted. Tag dom=주도 (35-55%) · mixed=혼재 · pure=순수 (≥55%).

Ticker	Cell Name	Top CAT	Tag	32y N	% of 32y
C01A	C01	Mixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 15 + Commodity 10)	mixed	1,382	16.48%
C06L	C06	Rates 28% + MAS_aam 14%	dom	860	10.26%
C02X	C02	Rates 28%	dom	726	8.66%
C16Q	C16	Rates 25%	mixed	701	8.36%
C10A	C10	Positioning 18%	mixed	697	8.31%
C22Q	C22	Rates 19% + Macro 17%	mixed	541	6.45%
C25A	C25	MAS_aam 17% + Rates 17%	mixed	449	5.35%
C26L	C26	Rates 25% + Global 13%	mixed	403	4.81%
C09Q	C09	Mixed (Commodity 21 + MAS_aam 20)	mixed	392	4.67%
C20A	C20	Mixed (Commodity 16 + Positioning 15 + Forex 13)	mixed	342	4.08%
C21A	C21	Credit 22% + Volatility 13%	mixed	340	4.05%
C05A	C05	Rates 29%	dom	259	3.09%
C08A	C08	Rates 23%	mixed	245	2.92%
C04Q	C04	Rates 38%	dom	201	2.40%
C23P	C23	Credit 26% + Macro 15%	dom	156	1.86%
C03X	C03	Credit 37%	dom	145	1.73%
C17X	C17			112	1.34%
C15Q	C15	Rates 33% + Credit 26%	dom	96	1.14%
C11Q	C11	MAS_aam 40%	dom	92	1.10%
C07Q	C07	MAS_aam 55%	pure	89	1.06%
C24A	C24	Macro 39% + FinConditions 22%	dom	81	0.97%
C12Q	C12	Rates 36% + FinConditions 28%	dom	25	0.30%
C18Q	C18			24	0.29%
C19R	C19	Positioning 44% + Credit 33%	dom	18	0.21%
C14Q	C14	Cyclical 67%	dom	6	0.07%
C13A	C13	Equity 100% (n=4 small sample)	pure	4	0.05%

32y Distribution — Top 10 (Member + Internal)

회원 노출 Member regime + 내부 분석 DataLeads code의 32y 발생 빈도 Top 10 비교.

외부용 — Member Regime Top 10

Regime	Days	% of 32y
CONSOLIDATION	2,254	26.88%
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION	1,504	17.93%
CYCLICAL_BULL	1,465	17.47%
STRUCTURAL_BULL	1,119	13.34%
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY	850	10.14%
EXPANSION	798	9.52%
STRUCTURAL_BEAR	361	4.30%
EARLY_BEAR	35	0.42%

내부용 — DataLeads Top 10

DataLeads code	Days	% of 32y
MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01	1,382	16.48%
LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01	860	10.26%
X-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01	726	8.66%
EQ-BULL_x_MA-BEAR_01	701	8.36%
MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_04	697	8.31%
EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_08	541	6.45%
MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_09	449	5.35%
LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02	403	4.81%
EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02	392	4.67%
MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_06	342	4.08%

Top 20 Longest Cell Streaks — 32y Persistence (Top 5 청색 highlight)

같은 cell이 연속으로 유지된 streak 길이 Top 20. Cell-Track regime의 dwell time 본체. Top 5는 청색 강조 (32y 최장 streaks). Today cell C26L 발생 시 추가 highlight.

#	Ticker	Cell	Days	Start	End
1	C24A	C24	56d	2008-10-01	2008-12-18
2	C22Q	C22	46d	2001-05-22	2001-07-26
3	C05A	C05	40d	2002-06-19	2002-08-14
4	C23P	C23	39d	2022-08-26	2022-10-20
5	C06L	C06	34d	1998-05-05	1998-06-22
6	C22Q	C22	32d	2008-06-20	2008-08-05
7	C02X	C02	29d	2000-12-05	2001-01-17
8	C06L	C06	27d	1996-07-09	1996-08-14
9	C09Q	C09	27d	2003-11-24	2004-01-02
10	C02X	C02	25d	2001-10-10	2001-11-13
11	C21A	C21	24d	2020-03-06	2020-04-08
12	C01A	C01	23d	2001-08-01	2001-08-31
13	C21A	C21	23d	2016-01-13	2016-02-16
14	C23P	C23	23d	2018-12-04	2019-01-08
15	C05A	C05	22d	1998-08-21	1998-09-22
16	C01A	C01	22d	2001-12-14	2002-01-16
17	C20A	C20	22d	2004-11-04	2004-12-06
18	C21A	C21	22d	2022-06-13	2022-07-14
19	C02X	C02	21d	1998-12-03	1999-01-04
20	C06L	C06	21d	1999-05-18	1999-06-16

ARIS Regime Classification — DataLeads PIT-safe

Dashboard / Lyra / Executive Terminal에 실제 노출되는 회원용 본체 regime 이름. Format: [Bull_prefix]-BULL_x_[Bear_prefix]-BEAR_[sub_num] · 12 prefix decoder × 26 cells × source signature = unique PIT-safe name.
Captain V1 정합: "Data Leads All The Way" (5/15) + Cell_Naming_DataLeads_Report_20260508.md .

Today Regime (DataLeads PIT-safe) Hero box는 ↑ 11번 종합 진단 밑으로 이동 (Captain 5/18 결론 강조). 이 reference section은 26 Cells × DataLeads + Quality breakdown 본격.

12 Prefix Decoder (Captain V1 본체 — DataLeads 회원 노출용)

EQ Equity (주식)

MA Macro (거시지표)

LQ Liquidity (유동성)

RT Rates (금리)

PO Positioning (포지셔닝)

CR Credit (신용)

VL Volatility (변동성)

CM Commodity (원자재)

EN Energy (에너지)

GL Global (글로벌)

FX Forex (외환)

X Other (기타)

26 Cells × DataLeads + Cell Quality — Today Highlighted

각 cell의 DataLeads name + 32y persistence + Cluster quality (silhouette tightness · purity · Bull/Bear signature match %). Captain 5/8 Cell_3Layer_Evaluation 본체 + archive neural_flow_animation_v9 정합.

Cell ID	Ticker	DataLeads	Decoded	n (32y)	Tight	Purity	Bull✓	Bear✓
C01	C01A	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	1382	V.LOOSE	20%	6/34	23/58
C02	C02X	`X-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Other (기타) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	726	V.LOOSE	24%	25/66	23/55
C03	C03X	`X-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Other (기타) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	145	LOOSE	58%	16/61	26/72
C04	C04Q	`EQ-BULL_x_PO-BEAR_01`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Positioning (포지셔닝) side 약세 (sub #0	199	LOOSE	64%	13/38	1/15
C05	C05A	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	259	LOOSE	72%	8/26	37/75
C06	C06L	`LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	860	V.LOOSE	37%	2/15	35/60
C07	C07Q	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	89	MEDIUM	74%	92/100	37/75
C08	C08A	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03)	245	V.LOOSE	67%	0/20	22/73
C09	C09Q	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	392	V.LOOSE	71%	34/81	18/51
C10	C10A	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_04`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #04)	697	V.LOOSE	34%	5/36	23/50
C11	C11Q	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03)	84	TIGHT	93%	52/81	45/85
C12	C12Q	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_04`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #04)	25	TIGHT	60%	64/100	24/96
C13	C13A	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_05`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #05)	4	TIGHT	100%	0/0	0/100
C14	C14Q	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_05`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #05)	6	TIGHT	100%	100/100	0/17
C15	C15Q	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_06`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #06)	96	V.LOOSE	43%	31/77	30/82
C16	C16Q	`EQ-BULL_x_MA-BEAR_01`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Macro (거시지표) side 약세 (sub #01)	701	V.LOOSE	25%	17/47	7/28
C17	C17X	`X-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03`	Other (기타) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03)	112	V.LOOSE	41%	28/66	46/79
C18	C18Q	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_07`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #07)	24	TIGHT	100%	21/50	0/92
C19	C19R	`RT-BULL_x_X-BEAR_01`	Rates (금리) driven Bull × Other (기타) side 약세 (sub #01)	18	TIGHT	100%	33/100	89/100
C20	C20A	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_06`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #06)	342	V.LOOSE	40%	1/21	15/45
C21	C21A	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_07`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #07)	340	LOOSE	73%	1/19	59/87
C22	C22Q	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_08`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #08)	541	V.LOOSE	37%	5/32	40/73
C23	C23P	`PO-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Positioning (포지셔닝) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #0	156	LOOSE	61%	0/29	65/90
C24	C24A	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_08`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #08)	81	TIGHT	100%	0/0	0/59
C25	C25A	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_09`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #09)	449	V.LOOSE	24%	6/32	29/61
C26	C26L	`LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	400	V.LOOSE	11%	5/16	27/65

Columns: n (32y) = 발현 일수 · Tight = silhouette 분류 (TIGHT/MEDIUM/V.LOOSE) · Purity = cluster 순도 % · Bull✓ / Bear✓ = strict / relaxed signature match %

32y DataLeads Frequency (Top 10)

DataLeads Code	Decoded	Days	% of 32y
`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	1,382	16.48%
`LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	860	10.26%
`X-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Other (기타) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	726	8.66%
`EQ-BULL_x_MA-BEAR_01`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Macro (거시지표) side 약세 (sub #01)	701	8.36%
`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_04`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #04)	697	8.31%
`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_08`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #08)	541	6.45%
`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_09`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #09)	449	5.35%
`LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	403	4.81%
`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	392	4.67%
`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_06`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #06)	342	4.08%

Layer 4 — Member Regime (6 Main + 24 Sub, Tier 메시지용)

DataLeads (Layer 3) 위에 추가로 6 main regime grouping (Top 1 source × direction). Bronze/Silver tier 메시지에 사용. 본체 분류는 Layer 3 DataLeads.

STRONG_BULL

32y freq: 31.3%

주요 source dominant + BULL direction

Subs (6):
MAS_aam_BULL · Rates_BULL · Credit_BULL · Macro_BULL
Equity_BULL · Major Stocks_BULL

EXTERNAL_BULL

32y freq: 18.6%

원자재/Energy/Global/Forex driven BULL

Subs (4):
Commodity_BULL · Energy_BULL · Global_BULL · Forex_BULL

POSITION_BULL

32y freq: 5.7%

포지션 driven BULL (margin / COT)

Subs (1):
Positioning_BULL

MIXED TODAY

32y freq: 24.5%

방향 결정 X (혼재)

Subs (6):
Rates_MIXED · Macro_MIXED · Positioning_MIXED · Commodity_MIXED
Forex_MIXED · MAS_aam_MIXED

BEAR_BUILD

32y freq: 14.4%

약세 형성

Subs (6):
Rates_BEAR · Macro_BEAR · Positioning_BEAR · Commodity_BEAR
Forex_BEAR · MAS_aam_BEAR

STRESS

32y freq: 5.4%

Credit/Volatility 위기

Subs (2):
Credit_BEAR · Volatility_BEAR

Classification Method (Phase 3.5 v13)

Step 1: 49 CAT 각자 Bull/Mixed/Bear/Stress 4 direction 측정.
Step 2: Top 1 source dominance 결정 (가장 강한 firing family).
Step 3: Top1 source × direction → 32 sub regimes (Rates_BULL, MAS_aam_BULL, Credit_BEAR 등).
Step 4: 32 sub → 6 main 그루핑 (sub_to_main_mapping).
구분 본질: "어느 source가 driving + 어느 방향인가" → name 자동 생성 (Captain V1 source-based 자체 발견).
Captain V1 정합: 사전 K range X · 32y data가 자체 결정 (Captain V1 "Data Leads All The Way" 5/15 영구 + CD-44/47 K=BIC data-driven 정합).

▶ 32 Sub-to-Main Mapping Full Table (click to expand)

Sub Regime	Main Regime
MAS_aam_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Rates_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Credit_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Macro_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Equity_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Major Stocks_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Commodity_BULL	EXTERNAL_BULL
Energy_BULL	EXTERNAL_BULL
Global_BULL	EXTERNAL_BULL
Forex_BULL	EXTERNAL_BULL
Positioning_BULL	POSITION_BULL
Credit_BEAR	STRESS
Volatility_BEAR	STRESS
Rates_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Macro_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Positioning_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Commodity_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Forex_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
MAS_aam_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Energy_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Global_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Macro_MIXED	MIXED
Rates_MIXED	MIXED
Positioning_MIXED	MIXED
Commodity_MIXED	MIXED
Forex_MIXED	MIXED
MAS_aam_MIXED	MIXED
Credit_MIXED	MIXED
Equity_MIXED	MIXED
Volatility_MIXED	MIXED
Energy_MIXED	MIXED
Global_MIXED	MIXED

32y Distribution

External Regime (32y Top 8)

Member Regime	Days	%
data 미가용

Internal Cell (32y Top 10)

Cell (Internal)	Days	%
C01	1,382	16.48%
C06	860	10.26%
C02	726	8.66%
C16	701	8.36%
C10	697	8.31%
C22	541	6.45%
C25	449	5.35%
C26	403	4.81%
C09	392	4.67%
C20	342	4.08%

R-2

L5 Cell Ticker — Today: C26L (C26) ▶ SPRC L5 Detail

Cell C26L = C26 · Source dominance: Rates 25% + Global 13% · tag: mixed · ERA: 2025+.
32y persistence: 403 days (4.81%) · rank 8/26 · streak 3d.

tag 의미 — 26 cells 각자 source category 집중도 (cell_ticker_mapping.json):
• dom (dominance, 12 cells): 1 prefix가 35~55% 차지 — 예: CB1R Rates 38% · CB0C Credit 37%
• mixed (11 cells): 어느 prefix도 dominant 안 함 — 예: CN0X Rates 17 + MAS_aam 15 + Commodity 10
• pure (3 cells): 1 prefix가 ≥55% 차지 — 예: DR0M MAS_aam 55% · EB1Q Equity 100%
Today C26L tag = mixed → 여러 prefix 분산.

Cell의 Hebbian-derived emergent profile + 32y forward outcome + Multi-window Synaptic Transmission 자세히 → SPRC page

HISTORY — 과거는 무엇을 말하는가 (제목)

32y Direction History + Cell Track + Top 20 Firing · sub 14 / 15 / 16 본격

R-3

12 Prefix Stages — 각자 family 진단 (Detailed)

각 prefix 펼치기 → Bull/Bear firing 본격 + driver Top 3 + 진단

1 EQ — Equity Bull 3 · Bear 2

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
SPMO	+3.24σ
XLK	+3.02σ
QQQ	+2.73σ

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
IWF	-3.28σ
IWF_SLP50	-3.28σ

Findings: Today EQ = 3 Bull / 2 Bear. Mixed.

2 MA — Macro Bull 1 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
NFP	+6.66σ

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today MA = 1 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

3 LQ — Liquidity Bull 0 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today LQ = 0 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

4 RT — Rates Bull 0 · Bear 2

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Z_GT5	-2.90σ
Z_GT2	-2.68σ

Findings: Today RT = 0 Bull / 2 Bear. Bear-driven.

5 PO — Positioning Bull 1 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
MARGIN_DEBT	+3.26σ

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today PO = 1 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

6 CR — Credit Bull 0 · Bear 4

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
HY_TR	-3.51σ
IG_TR	-3.39σ
SP_B_BB	-3.34σ
B_OAS	-3.17σ

Findings: Today CR = 0 Bull / 4 Bear. Bear-driven.

7 VL — Volatility Bull 0 · Bear 1

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
VRP	-2.83σ

Findings: Today VL = 0 Bull / 1 Bear. Mixed.

8 CM — Commodity Bull 0 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today CM = 0 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

9 EN — Energy Bull 1 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
CRACK_SPREAD	+3.06σ

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today EN = 1 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

10 GL — Global Bull 0 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today GL = 0 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

11 FX — Forex Bull 0 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today FX = 0 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

12 X — Other (Mixed) Bull 4 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
MAS_AAM_200_XLRE	+3.56σ
RT_XLK_XLU	+3.21σ
MAS_AAM_56_XLRE	+3.19σ
RT_MTUM_SPY	+2.74σ

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today X = 4 Bull / 0 Bear. Bull-driven.

R-4

32y Direction History + Regime History — 3 Charts ▶ Cinematic Timeline (32y playback)

32y daily ARIS data 시각화 · cat votes + Net direction + 위기/Bull 시기 + Synaptic transmission

Chart 1: 32y cat_bull vs cat_bear Daily

Chart 2: 32y Net Direction (Bull - Bear)

Chart 3: 32y Cell Family Track (Regime History)

32y Major Crisis Periods

GFC (Lehman → Bottom)

2008-09 ~ 2009-03

COVID Crash → V-bounce

2020-02 ~ 2020-04

2022 Inflation Bear

2022-01 ~ 2022-10

Tariff Bear → Bottom

2025-02 ~ 2025-04

Top 5 Synaptic Transmissions (32y most frequent Cell → Cell)

From	→ To	Count	% of transitions
C16	C01	124	4.75%
C01	C16	101	3.87%
C01	C25	101	3.87%
C25	C01	99	3.79%
C01	C10	92	3.53%

R-5

Top 20 Firing Neurons — 3 Charts

Today의 axon z 최강 Top 20 · 3 angle 차트로 분리

Chart 1: Source Category

Chart 2: Top 10 Bull (z > 0)

Chart 3: Top 10 Bear (z < 0)

Cinematic 32y playback → Regime Timeline · L5 cursor-synced → L5 Cell Detail

Machine Learning · TGN v2 (Temporal Graph Network)

+30d cell transition forecast · Walk-forward 25/25 positive · ARIS 정확성 강화 layer

TGN v2 — Temporal Graph Network 소개

TGN v2는 ARIS의 cell + neuron 시계열을 graph로 학습하여 +30d 미래 cell 전이를 예측. Walk-forward 25/25 positive (100%) · edge +9.06pp ~ +12.86pp.

TGN v2가 무엇이고, ARIS 정확성에 어떻게 기여하는가

TGN v2 (Temporal Graph Network v2)란:
시간에 따라 변하는 graph (node + edge) 구조를 학습하는 ML model. v1 (daily production) → v2 (walk-forward 32y 본격 검증 + 정확성 강화) 진화. 일반 neural network는 정적 feature 분류만 — TGN v2는 시계열 graph propagation을 본격 학습.

ARIS TGN v2 입력:
• Nodes: 26 cells (K=26 BIC) — 시장 phase
• Edges: Hebbian synaptic transmission probability (32y co-firing learning)
• Features: 294 neuron × 8 dim z-score (sign-corrected)
• Time series: daily 8,381 days (1993 ~ Today)
• v2 강화 (vs v1): walk-forward 32y full validation + ERA-aware split

TGN v2 예측 task:
Today cell → +30d 후 transit할 가능성 높은 cell + 그 시기의 forward return distribution.
= "현재 cell에서 30 trading days 후 어떤 cell로 propagation할 가능성이 높은가" 정량 예측.

✓ ARIS 정확성 강화 — TGN v2 검증 결과:
• Cell-level baseline (단순 multi-window): walk-forward edge ~5pp
• + TGN v2 cross-validation: walk-forward edge +12.86pp 추가
• 2022 Inflation Bear (crisis): +27.78pp
• 2023-2024 stability: +11.0pp
• 2025 Tariff cycle: +0.4pp
= "TGN v2를 cross-validation으로 사용 시 baseline 대비 정확성 향상 본격 측정"

TGN v2 운영 위치:
• DLATW (본 page) #11 종합 진단의 cross-validation 계층
• Daily auto-update (14:00 PDT pipeline integration)
• L5 SSCC (Synapse Passes the Right Cell) Stage 7 — synaptic transmission 본격
• v1 (daily production) ↔ v2 (walk-forward verified) 병행 운영

Walk-forward 32y 검증 — Captain 5/12 Tella PC validation

Metric	Value	Note
Windows positive	25 / 25	100% positive edge
Edge range	+9.06pp ~ +12.86pp	mean improvement (best/worst window)
2022 Inflation Bear	+27.78pp	Crisis catch (cell-level 0% baseline)
2023-2024 stability	+11.0pp	regime change 후 보존
2025 Tariff cycle	+0.4pp	새 regime positive 유지

Source: tgn_walkforward_summary.json · Captain 5/12 Tella PC 32y validation

ML Architecture 비교 — Captain 5/6 PM 정량 발견 (Status-only 모두 negative)

Architecture	Walk-forward Edge	Note
TGN v1 (Graph + GRU)	+8.0pp	full model ·
μ-6 GraphSAGE-only	+7.7pp	96% alpha = Graph
Temporal contribution	+0.3pp	4% (보조)
LSTM (Status-only)	-5 ~ -10pp	negative edge!
Transformer (Status-only)	-7 ~ -12pp	negative edge!
kNN (Status-only)	-5 ~ -8pp	negative edge!

"Graph (Synapse)이 결정적 missing piece" (Captain 5/6 PM 정량 발견)
→ ARIS의 진정한 alpha = Graph (Synapse Network) 자체
→ Status-only ML 모두 negative edge → Synapse Network 없이 일반 ML 적용 = 손실

Architecture (TGN v2) — Graph + SAGE + GRU · 40,712 params

Component	Detail
Model	TGN v2 (B-4 walk-forward verified production)
Architecture	2-layer SAGE + GRU
seq_len	60 trading days
Params	40,712
Train time	GPU 8.5h
Epoch	8
v1 → v2 진화	v1: daily production · v2: walk-forward 32y full validation + ERA-aware split

Source forecast: today_tgn_forecast.json (v2 production)
Walk-forward summary: tgn_walkforward_summary.json (v2 32y validation)

Today TGN +30D Prediction

Top 5 Bullish Predicted

#	Neuron	Category
1	SP_VIX_VIX3M	volatility
2	MA200D_SPX	equity
3	AAII_BullBear_Spread	sentiment
4	BBB_SP	credit
5	COT_EUR_NCN	positioning

Top 5 Bearish Predicted

#	Neuron	Category
1	NFP	macro
2	CARZ	industry
3	GASOLINE	energy
4	CCC_OAS	credit
5	VOX	industry

Today TGN Cell Prediction:
• Today cell: DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4
• TGN predicted (+30D): DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 (self-loop = cell stays — regime stability signal)
• Reference date: 2026-05-05 · Status: ML 진행 중 (테스트 + extension 의무)

Wall Street Tier 1 차별화

기관 grade 정합 + ARIS 본격 기능 5

기능	왜 차별화?	정량 검증 + 영향
TGN v2 Architecture Synapse Network ML	일반 ML (LSTM/Transformer)은 raw data를 그대로 학습하지만, ARIS는 "Synapse Network" 자체를 graph로 학습합니다. 32년 cell co-firing 패턴 → graph propagation → +30d 미래 예측. = "다른 곳에 없는 본격 ML 본체"	• 일반 ML: status-only (정적 분류) → ARIS 평균 edge -5 ~ -12pp • TGN v2: +12.9pp (graph propagation) → "Graph가 결정적 missing piece" (정량 발견)
Walk-forward 검증 32y robust validation	대부분 quant fund는 in-sample 결과만 publish합니다. ARIS는 32년 walk-forward (시기별 별도 학습) 본격 검증 — 각 시기 (PRE_2015 / 2015-2019 / 2020-2024 / 2025+) 별도 측정해서 ERA 진화도 흡수.	• Windows: 25/25 positive (100%) • Edge: +9.1 ~ +12.9pp • Institutional standard 2-5pp 대비 3-6배 차별화
Per-Stock Prediction F-Tier 1500 stocks 도착 시	현재 ARIS는 macro regime (cell 26개) + 29 assets (SPY/QQQ/IWM + 11 sectors + 15 stocks). F-Tier 1500 stocks (Engine 3, 3-6개월 후) 도착 시 TGN v2가 per-stock +30d 직접 예측으로 확장 가능 — 종목별 entry/exit timing.	• 현재: cell-level (macro phase) 예측 • 미래: stock-level (NVDA/MSFT/GS 등 개별) 예측 • Long/Short pair Top 50 자동 산출 가능 • Asset Action L4 (개별 종목 actionable) 본격
AI Chain Composite Phase 1-4 합성 index	AI Bubble (NVDA → semi → AI services → frontier quantum) 4 phases를 단일 composite index로 합성 가능. Phase 1-4 weighted sum → AI sector regime +30d 본격 예측. "AI bubble peak 임박" 정량 신호 산출.	• Phase 1: NVDA (현재) • Phase 2: ASML / AMD / Semi 60 stocks • Phase 3: CRM / ADBE / AI Enablers • Phase 4: IONQ / RGTI / Quantum + Pure-play AI • TGN v2로 합성 → "AI bubble 임박" early warning
Sector Rotation 명시 11 SPDR 본격	"어디로 자금이 이동하는가" 정량 명시. 11 SPDR sectors (XLK/XLF/XLE/XLV/XLI/XLC/XLY/XLP/XLU/XLB/XLRE) 간 propagation 방향 + 시기 본격. = "From → To" 명확 (예: XLK Tech → XLU Utilities = defensive rotation 신호).	• Today rotation: Source dominance (Rates 25% + Global) • Multi-window: 1d / 30d / 60d 별도 rotation 측정 • 기관 fund 자금 흐름 정량 추적 • Long XLE + Short XLV 같은 pair trading actionable

Layer 1 — Cell	C26 (Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC, internal cluster)
Layer 2 — Ticker	C26L (4-letter, cell_ticker_mapping)
Layer 3 — DataLeads PIT-safe	LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02 (DataLeads PIT-safe · 내부 Regime)
Layer 4 — Member Regime	MIXED / Credit_MIXED (6 main + 24 sub · Tier 메시지용)
Layer 5 — Internal (보조)	C26L_MIXED_2025+ (ERA × Cell × Direction · 52 unique)
Decoded	Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)
Independent axis	CRS NORMAL · ERA 2025+ · Maturity 0.00x · Divergence +0.111

방법	Year	특징	ARIS와 차이
HMM Hamilton	1989	Hidden state from returns	Cell independently defined
GMM	classical	Point-in-time clustering	GMM = Cell layer only, Track 별도
Forward-return labeling	quant std	미래 수익률로 분류	CD-12 위반, ARIS = PIT-safe
BOCPD	2007	Bayesian changepoint	변화만 감지, Regime 분류 X
Hierarchical Trajectory	2017	2-layer trajectory	유사 본질, 다른 domain
SAX	2007	Symbolic sequence	유사 sequence, single-var
H-ETE-GNN	2025	Graph + TE + Hurst	유사 본질, ARIS TGN 정합
ARIS	2026	Cell Track (5-layer) Hebbian neural	Unique combination