ARIS Regime Decision : Data Leads All The Way

Date: 2026-05-18 · Cell: DR4M (DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4) · Member Regime: MIXED (Credit_MIXED) · Internal Regime: DR4M_MIXED_2025+

8-Stage Decision Flow (E1 최종 단계) · 왼쪽 sidebar로 단계 navigate · 1⃣ Snapshot → 2⃣ Methodology → 3⃣ Vocabulary → 4⃣ Decoding → 5⃣ Evidence → 6⃣ History → 7⃣ Forecast → 8⃣ Machine Learning · TGN

PART 1

Decision Flow — 7 Stages + 8 Machine Learning · TGN

SNAPSHOT → METHODOLOGY → VOCABULARY → DECODING → EVIDENCE → HISTORY → FORECAST → Machine Learning · TGN

SNAPSHOT — 지금 어디 있나

Today 좌표 인식 · 모든 후속 분석의 출발점

Today Cell

DR4M

DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4

Member Regime

MIXED

sub: Credit_MIXED

Source Dominance

MAS_aam 40%

tag: dom

ERA

2025+

★ Today Regime Identity — 5-Layer Synapse Snapshot

Member Regime

외부용 노출 (회원)

MIXED

Credit_MIXED

Internal Regime

Captain + Internal 분석 (Mixed 이유)

DR4M_MIXED_2025+

Mixed 이유:
  • CAT votes 비대칭: Bull 12 / Bear 19 (차이 7)
  • L4 vs L5 Divergence +0.116 HIGH — 표면 (WEAK_BULL) vs 내부 (RRM -0.138) 분기
  • L4 verdict (BULL) ≠ L5 direction (BEAR) — Cross-layer 불일치

Cell Ticker

4-letter (Phase 3.5 v13)

DR4M

DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4

Top 3 Firing

Today axon z 최강

RETAIL_SALES +12.82 · NFP +6.77 · HY_TR -3.98

METHODOLOGY — 어떻게 측정했나

ARIS Cell-Track Regime Methodology · 신뢰성 근거

ARIS Cell-Track Regime Methodology

Neuron
294

→

CAT
49

→

Group
25

→

Cell
26 (K=26 BIC)

→

Track
8,382 days

→

Scenarios
4,386 시나리오

→

Regime
6 main · 24 sub

Cell = Status / Profile (snapshot) · Scenarios = L4 × L5 Cross-Layer 32y 누적 · Regime = Track of Cells (시간 sequence) · ▶ Methodology Detail

VOCABULARY — 무슨 언어로 말하나

12 Prefix Decoder + 26 Cell Full Description · regime의 알파벳

12 Prefix Decoder ▶ 어떻게 12개가 선정되었는지

각 prefix = 시장의 한 family. 어느 prefix가 Today driving하는지 진단. Top 3 강조.

EQ — Equity

3 Bull · 2 Bear

equity / stocks / sectors / styles / fac

MA — Macro

2 Bull · 0 Bear

macro economic data

LQ — Liquidity

0 Bull · 0 Bear

macro_liquidity

RT — Rates

0 Bull · 2 Bear

rates + yield_curve

PO — Positioning

1 Bull · 0 Bear

cot / positioning / sentiment

CR — Credit

0 Bull · 4 Bear

credit family

VL — Volatility

0 Bull · 1 Bear

volatility

CM — Commodity

0 Bull · 0 Bear

commodity + crypto

EN — Energy

1 Bull · 0 Bear

energy

GL — Global

0 Bull · 0 Bear

global

FX — Forex

0 Bull · 0 Bear

forex

X — Other (Mixed)

3 Bull · 0 Bear

breadth/mas/mas_aam/pmo/flow/ratios

26 Cell Full Description (Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC data-driven)

DataLeads PIT-safe naming (Captain 5/8 APPROVED). Today cell DR4M highlighted.

CN0X

CONSOLIDATION_sub0

Mixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 15 + Commodity 10)

tag: mixed

CN1R

CONSOLIDATION_sub1

Rates 28%

tag: dom

CB0C

CYCLICAL_BULL_sub0

Credit 37%

tag: dom

CB1R

CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1

Rates 38%

tag: dom

CB2R

CYCLICAL_BULL_sub2

Rates 29%

tag: dom

CB3R

CYCLICAL_BULL_sub3

Rates 28% + MAS_aam 14%

tag: dom

DR0M

DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub0

MAS_aam 55%

tag: pure

DR1R

DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub1

Rates 23%

tag: mixed

DR2X

DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub2

Mixed (Commodity 21 + MAS_aam 20)

tag: mixed

DR3P

DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub3

Positioning 18%

tag: mixed

DR4M

DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4

MAS_aam 40%

tag: dom

EB0R

EARLY_BEAR_sub0

Rates 36% + FinConditions 28%

tag: dom

EB1Q

EARLY_BEAR_sub1

Equity 100% (n=4 small sample)

tag: pure

EB2Y

EARLY_BEAR_sub2

Cyclical 67%

tag: dom

EX0R

EXPANSION_sub0

Rates 33% + Credit 26%

tag: dom

EX1R

EXPANSION_sub1

Rates 25%

tag: mixed

MS0X

Macro_Stress_sub0

Mixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 22 + Macro 13)

tag: mixed

MS1A

Macro_Stress_sub1

Macro 100% dominant

tag: pure

BR0P

STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub0

Positioning 44% + Credit 33%

tag: dom

BR1X

STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub1

Mixed (Commodity 16 + Positioning 15 + Forex 13)

tag: mixed

SB0C

STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub0

Credit 22% + Volatility 13%

tag: mixed

SB1R

STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub1

Rates 19% + Macro 17%

tag: mixed

SB2C

STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub2

Credit 26% + Macro 15%

tag: dom

SB3A

STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub3

Macro 39% + FinConditions 22%

tag: dom

VR0M

V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub0

MAS_aam 17% + Rates 17%

tag: mixed

VR1R

V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub1

Rates 25% + Global 13%

tag: mixed

DECODING — 오늘 code는 무엇인가

5 Layers 판정 + L4 × L5 Cross-Layer Pattern · 진단의 본체

판정 방법 — L3-L5 + L4 × L5 Cross-Layer ▶ 5 Layers 각자 본격

ARIS Regime 판정은 5 layers cross-validation으로 진단. 각 layer가 독립적으로 측정 → 종합 합의 시 strong signal · 분기 시 mixed regime.

L3 SSJ

12 stages SOMA

Today: cell DR4M

L4-1 W3

15 signals · K=6 BIC

Mode: ?

L4-2 BP

Bull Stage K=6 BIC

BP: 0.565 · BULL_HIGH

L4-3 kNN

29 assets × Multi-window

Combined Hit 75.6%

L5 Cell+Phase5

K=26 BIC + Neuron L0

L0: -0.138

L4 × L5 Cross-Layer Pattern — 32y 4,386 Predictions

Today pattern: L4 BULL × L5 BEAR (L4BULL_L5BEAR) → 32y historical n=2,124 cases.

Pattern	N (32y)	Sign Hit	Actual Mean	해석
L4 BULL × L5 BULL	1,169	75.6%	+0.04%	강한 Bull 신호 (32y 가장 흔함)
L4 BEAR × L5 BULL	766	55.1%	+0.01%	60D V-bounce paradox (표면 Bear, 내부 Bull)
L4 BULL × L5 BEAR TODAY	2,124	74.9%	+0.03%	표면 Bull / 내부 Bear (60D V-bounce pre-event)
L4 BEAR × L5 BEAR	327	81.3%	+0.04%	진짜 Bear (정합)

Captain V1 "Cell은 통과하는 문 (Bull bias)" 정량 검증: L4 BEAR × L5 BULL (766 cases) 이 L4 BEAR × L5 BEAR (327 cases) 보다 2.3배 흔함.
→ Today 선정 = L4BULL_L5BEAR (2,124 cases, sign hit 74.9%, actual mean +0.03%) · 위 테이블 row에 자동 border + bold 적용 ✓.

자세히: L3 SSJ · L4 S4DV · L5 SPRC 또는 우측 [Click] ▶ 5 Layers 각자 본격 panel

EVIDENCE — 신호 일치/분기

5 Step 종합 진단 · Today Market Noteworthy Findings (5 items) · Cell + Track + L4×L5 + Top firing + Forecast

Today Market Noteworthy Findings — 5 Step 종합

① Today 진단 (Cell + Regime)
Cell DR4M (DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4) · Source MAS_aam 40% · Member MIXED. 32y 위치: 91 days (1.09%, 26 중 19위) · streak 1d.

② Track 진행 (Previous → Today)
이전 cell CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1 (2d dwell) → Today DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 (1d 진행). 32y total 2,608 cell-to-cell synaptic transmissions / 196 unique paths.

③ Today L4×L5 Cross-Layer Pattern
L4 = WEAK_BULL · L5 (Phase 5 L0) = -0.138 · Pattern = L4BULL_L5BEAR (32y n=2,124명).

④ Top firing 카테고리
Top 3 prefix: EQ 5 · CR 4 · X 3. Cat votes Bull 12 / Neutral 18 / Bear 19.

⑤ Forecast (UV verdict, multi-window 명시) — Captain V1 "60일만 X" 정합
UV verdict (60D 기준): Maturity Pullback → V-bounce 회복 · BP 0.565 · Stage BULL_HIGH · CRS NORMAL · Divergence +0.116.
Multi-Window Top-1 forecast: 15D DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub... (56%) · 30D DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub... (38%) · 60D CONSOLIDATION_sub0 (32%) · 자세히는 ↓ §7 FORECAST + L5 Cell Detail (cursor-synced)

FORECAST — 어디로 가나

Multi-Window Strategy Matrix + 10 Decision Rules + 3-horizon verdict + 4 ERA Forward Returns · 미래 방향 진단

Future Regime Forecast — Track-based + Phase 3.5 v10 4 ERA

Today cell DR4M에서 출발하는 Synaptic Transmission (Captain 4/30 영구) + Phase 3.5 v10 4 ERA forward returns. TGN +30d Neuron-level cross-validation은 ↓ Stage 8 Machine Learning · TGN에서 본격.

① Multi-Window Strategy Matrix (Today Cell DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4, 32y Walk-Forward)

Today cell DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 distribution — 각 horizon별 forecast scenario + sign hit + 32y actual mean + Captain 5/9 Strategy. 11 windows (5d ~ 250d) 본격 측정.

Window	Forecast	SignHit	Actual Mean	Strategy
5d	NEUTRAL	98.2%	+0.13%	WAIT
10d	NEUTRAL	94.5%	+0.48%	WAIT
15d	NEUTRAL	92.7%	+0.64%	WAIT
20d	BULL	12.7%	+1.08%	OBSERVE
30d	BULL	29.1%	+1.94%	OBSERVE
40d	BULL	56.4%	+3.48%	OBSERVE
50d	BULL	89.1%	+5.28%	HOLD
60d	BULL	98.2%	+6.68%	HOLD
100d	STRONG_BULL	100.0%	+9.73%	HOLD_ADD_LONG
180d	STRONG_BULL	100.0%	+15.35%	HOLD_ADD_LONG
250d	STRONG_BULL	89.1%	+14.61%	HOLD_ADD_LONG

10 Decision Rules (Captain 5/9 Decision Tree, expandable)

Strategy	조건
HOLD_ADD_LONG	STRONG_BULL forecast + sign_hit ≥ 70%
HOLD	BULL forecast + sign_hit ≥ 60%
WAIT	NEUTRAL + window ≤ 15 + sign_hit ≥ 70%
HEDGE_DEFENSIVE	BEAR/STRONG_BEAR + window ≤ 30 + sign_hit ≥ 50%
STRONG_BUY_DIP	BEAR/STRONG_BEAR + window ≥ 60 + sign_hit < 30 + actual > 5%
BUY_DIP	BEAR/STRONG_BEAR + window ≥ 60 + sign_hit < 30
FORECAST_REVERSAL	BEAR/STRONG_BEAR + window ≤ 30 + sign_hit < 30
UNCERTAIN	NEUTRAL + 30 ≤ window ≤ 100 + sign_hit < 40
BULL_WEAK	BULL + window ≤ 15 + sign_hit < 50
OBSERVE	Default (no strong signal)

② 종합 결론 + Action (단기 / 중기 / 장기)

11 windows 종합 → 3 horizons majority verdict. Captain 5/9 Decision Tree 기반.

단기 (1-3주, 5-15d)

WAIT

중기 (1-3개월, 30-100d)

OBSERVE

장기 (6-12개월, 180-250d)

HOLD_ADD_LONG

③ Asset Action — L1-L3 (Internal · E3 도착 시 L4-L5 expand)

L1 Regime Bias	LONG bias · Bull BULL_HIGH · Maturity 0.00x · Divergence +0.116 → 단기 hedge 권장
L2 Sector (11 SPDR)	Long 250d (accumulate): XLP · XLRE · XLU (XLP +14.4% / XLRE +14.3% / XLU +14.1%, hit 100%) Short 60d (hedge): XLE · XLF · XLB (XLE -0.2% / XLF +1.1% / XLB +1.2%, hit 70%)
L3 Top Stocks (14 universe)	Long 250d: LLY · MSFT · WMT (LLY +36.8% / MSFT +26.7% / WMT +17.7%, hit 100%) Short 60d: ABBV · GS · DE (ABBV -7.7% / GS -1.5% / DE -1.4%, hit 20%)

V-bounce setup (60D): (no overlap today) = Long 250d 후보 + Short 60d 위험 동시 → 단기 hedge + 장기 accumulate 전략 (Captain 30년 직관 정합).

한계 (Internal use only): L4 (F-Tier 1500 stocks specific picks) = E3 + F-Tier 도착 시 · L5 (Position sizing + Entry/Exit timing) = E3 본격 · 현재 L3 = n=5 cosine analogs, 방향성 참조용

④ Multi-Window Cell Forecast — Synaptic Transmission Probability (Atlas SSOT · 2026-05-18 reference, n_match 697)

Window	Top 3 Next Cells (probability)
1d	DEFENSIVE_ROTA (78%) / CONSOLIDATION_ (17%) / STRUCTURAL_BEA (3%)
5d	DEFENSIVE_ROTA (64%) / CONSOLIDATION_ (18%) / STRUCTURAL_BEA (8%)
15d	DEFENSIVE_ROTA (56%) / CONSOLIDATION_ (19%) / V_BOUNCE_RECOV (13%)
30d	DEFENSIVE_ROTA (38%) / CONSOLIDATION_ (28%) / V_BOUNCE_RECOV (16%)
60d	CONSOLIDATION_ (32%) / DEFENSIVE_ROTA (32%) / V_BOUNCE_RECOV (14%)
100d	CONSOLIDATION_ (30%) / DEFENSIVE_ROTA (22%) / DEFENSIVE_ROTA (14%)
250d	CYCLICAL_BULL_ (37%) / DEFENSIVE_ROTA (11%) / STRUCTURAL_BUL (10%)

Interpretation:
  • 단기 (1d-15d): DEFENSIVE_ROTATION 자체 유지 가능성 + 인접 cell 전이 mixed. Today cell stable 상태.
  • 중기 (30d-100d): Top 1 → DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_s · 30d 윈도우에서 cell distribution 분산 → trend shift 가능.
  • 장기 (250d): Top 1 → CYCLICAL_BULL_sub3 · 32y same-cell forward 평균 = Bull 회복 base.
  • Captain V1 정합: Track-based propagation = "Cell A 출발 → 32y empirical 가장 자주 가는 next cell" 본체.

⑤ Phase 3.5 v10 — 4 ERA Forward Returns (32y, static · Captain CD-49)

Each ERA의 cell-level forward mean return + sign hit. Today ERA 2025+ highlighted. ERA-aware framework는 시장 진화 흡수 (CD-31 정합).

ERA	Mean Return	Sign Hit %
PRE_2015	+0.00%	0.0%
2015-2019	+0.00%	0.0%
2020-2024	+0.00%	0.0%
2025+ Today	+0.00%	0.0%

ERA 해석 — 왜 4 ERAs인가:
• PRE_2015: 전통적 cycle (QE 전, structural high vol) · 0 days
• 2015-2019: Post-QE 안정 expansion (낮은 inflation + dovish Fed) · 0 days
• 2020-2024: COVID + Inflation + Recovery (regime 변동 폭) · 0 days
• 2025+ (Today): Tariff cycle + AI Bubble (new regime) · 0 days
→ ERA별 forward return 다름 = ARIS ERA-aware framework 정합 (CD-31). → 같은 cell이라도 ERA마다 outcome 다름 → "시대 진화 흡수" 본체.

Machine Learning · TGN (+30d Neuron-level Cross-Validation)는 ↓ Stage 8 — Machine Learning · TGN에서 본격 분석. Captain V1 "Graph 96% alpha = Synapse" 정량 검증 + Walk-forward 25/25 positive + Wall Street Tier 1 차별화.

PART 2

Final Regime Determination — Phase 3.5 v10 (Captain V1 본체)

① Today Coordinate · ② 32y Analogs · ③ Forward Outcome · ④ 5 Step · ⑤ 종합 진단 · Reference Library

★ TODAY FINAL REGIME DETERMINATION — Phase 3.5 v10

"Today와 비슷한 32y 시점 + Forward outcome + 5 Step cross-validation" · Captain V1 본체 (외부 이론 X)

1
Today Coordinate
5-Layer Identity · Cell · Ticker · DataLeads  · Member  · Internal

        Layer 1 — Cell
        DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 (Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC, internal cluster)
      
        Layer 2 — Ticker
        DR4M (4-letter, cell_ticker_mapping)
      
        Layer 3 — DataLeads PIT-safe 
        EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03 (Captain 5/8 APPROVED · 내부 Regime)
      
        Layer 4 — Member Regime 
         MIXED / Credit_MIXED (6 main + 24 sub · Tier 메시지용)
      
        Layer 5 — Internal (보조)
        DR4M_MIXED_2025+ (ERA × Cell × Direction · 52 unique)
      
         Decoded
        Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03)
      
         Independent axis
         CRS NORMAL · ERA 2025+ · Maturity 0.00x · Divergence +0.116

32y Historical Analogs

Today와 가장 비슷한 시점 · 4 ERA × Top 5 = 20 analogs · Cosine 294-dim sign-applied

Today와 가장 비슷한 시점 (Today ERA 2025+): 2025-01-22 (cos 0.246) · 2025-01-21 (cos 0.242)

4 ERA × Top 5 = 20 analogs 전체 (Lookback bias 회피 · last 250d 제외)

2025+ Today ERA

가장 가까운 ERA

#	Date	cos sim
#1	2025-01-22	0.246
#2	2025-01-21	0.242
#3	2025-01-23	0.240
#4	2025-02-11	0.237
#5	2025-02-10	0.235

2020-2024

COVID + Inflation cycle

#	Date	cos sim
#1	2021-04-01	0.567
#2	2021-04-05	0.557
#3	2021-04-06	0.555
#4	2021-04-23	0.536
#5	2021-04-07	0.528

2015-2019

Post-QE 안정 expansion

#	Date	cos sim
#1	2018-01-22	0.454
#2	2018-01-23	0.454
#3	2018-01-24	0.440
#4	2018-01-19	0.432
#5	2018-01-26	0.431

PRE_2015

전통적 cycle (QE 전)

#	Date	cos sim
#1	2003-08-27	0.355
#2	2003-08-29	0.351
#3	2003-08-28	0.351
#4	2007-06-15	0.350
#5	2003-08-25	0.349

Forward Outcome

ERA × Multi-Window · 60-250d · Mean + P10 + Worst (Captain 5/9)

ERA	60d	100d	180d	250d
2025+	-8.3% / sign 21% P10 -27% · worst -29%	-0.6% / sign 57% P10 -28% · worst -49%	+11.3% / sign 80% P10 -28% · worst -55%	+23.2% / sign 92% P10 -27% · worst -29%
2020-2024	+5.9% / sign 84% P10 -12% · worst -15%	+10.5% / sign 84% P10 -12% · worst -20%	+13.6% / sign 80% P10 -12% · worst -27%	+18.6% / sign 81% P10 -16% · worst -35%
2015-2019	-5.4% / sign 14% P10 -17% · worst -27%	-1.6% / sign 44% P10 -21% · worst -27%	+4.6% / sign 57% P10 -21% · worst -28%	-2.3% / sign 28% P10 -26% · worst -42%
PRE_2015	+1.8% / sign 64% P10 -11% · worst -15%	+11.6% / sign 82% P10 -13% · worst -15%	+6.1% / sign 67% P10 -14% · worst -23%	+9.7% / sign 73% P10 -21% · worst -41%

저점 평균 (Today ERA 2025+ 60d): 43일 후 · Phase 3.5 v10 calc method = ARIS_REGIME_CALCULATION_METHOD_20260509.md

5 Step Cross-Validation

L4-1 · L4-2 · L4-3 · L5 · CRS · 표면 vs 내부 합의/분기

Consensus: Bull 2 / Mixed 0 / Bear 1 · L4×L5 pattern: L4BULL_L5BEAR (32y n=2,124, sign 74.9%) · Divergence: +0.116 (HIGH)

5 Step 상세 (L4-1 / L4-2 / L4-3 / L5 / CRS)

Step	Layer	Today Value	Direction
Step 1	L4-1 W3 — 15 signals · K=6 BIC mode	?	BULL
Step 2	L4-2 Bull Engine — BP · Stage K=6 BIC	BP 0.565 · BULL_HIGH	BULL
Step 3	L4-3 4-layer kNN — 29 assets × Multi-window (Hit 75.6%)	U/F/D split	MIXED
Step 4	L5 Phase 5 L0 — 294 neuron equal-weight	L0 -0.138	BEAR
Step 5	CRS state — CD-43 v4 · 4-channel event gate	NORMAL	NORMAL

종합 진단

★ Final Regime Determination · Phase 3.5 v10 본체 · Captain V1 + Quant 통합

Today와 가장 비슷한 시점 (Today ERA 2025+): 2025-01-22 · 2025-01-21
Forward (Today ERA 2025+): 60D -8.3% (sign 21%) → 250D +23.2% (sign 92%)
저점 평균: 43일 후 · 5 Step consensus: Bull 2 / Mixed 0 / Bear 1

Regime pattern: 60D Maturity Pullback → 250D V-bounce 회복

REGIME REFERENCE LIBRARY

보조 자료 — Catalog 외부/내부 · 26 Cell Ticker · 32y Distribution · Top 20 Streaks · 12 Prefix Decoder · DataLeads quality

Regime Catalog — 외부용 / 내부용 구분 + Cell Ticker ARIS_Regime_Catalog_v2 (5/12, 8,382 days)

외부용 (회원 노출)

Today member regime:

MIXED

Credit_MIXED

구조: top1_cat × direction

예시: MAS_aam_BULL / Rates_MIXED / Credit_BEAR

총 unique: 9 종 (master_db.regime 32y observed)

특징: 시장 segment 명칭 (직관적, 회원 친화)

내부용 (Captain + ARIS 분석)

Today internal regime:

DR4M_MIXED_2025+

DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4_2025+

구조: Cell ticker × direction × ERA

예시: CN0X_BULL / DR4M_BULL_2025+ / SB1R_BEAR

총 unique: 193 종 (Cell × direction × ERA, 32y observed combinations)

특징: Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC + 4-letter ticker (DataLeads PIT-safe)

26 Cell Ticker Complete Reference (Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC)

26 cells × 4-letter ticker × Top CAT × tag · 32y 빈도 순 정렬 · Today cell highlighted. Tag dom=주도 (35-55%) · mixed=혼재 · pure=순수 (≥55%).

Ticker	Cell Name	Top CAT	Tag	32y N	% of 32y
CN0X	CONSOLIDATION_sub0	Mixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 15 + Commodity 10)	mixed	1,382	16.49%
CB3R	CYCLICAL_BULL_sub3	Rates 28% + MAS_aam 14%	dom	860	10.26%
CN1R	CONSOLIDATION_sub1	Rates 28%	dom	726	8.66%
EX1R	EXPANSION_sub1	Rates 25%	mixed	701	8.36%
DR3P	DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub3	Positioning 18%	mixed	697	8.32%
SB1R	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub1	Rates 19% + Macro 17%	mixed	541	6.45%
VR0M	V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub0	MAS_aam 17% + Rates 17%	mixed	449	5.36%
VR1R	V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub1	Rates 25% + Global 13%	mixed	400	4.77%
DR2X	DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub2	Mixed (Commodity 21 + MAS_aam 20)	mixed	392	4.68%
BR1X	STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub1	Mixed (Commodity 16 + Positioning 15 + Forex 13)	mixed	342	4.08%
SB0C	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub0	Credit 22% + Volatility 13%	mixed	340	4.06%
CB2R	CYCLICAL_BULL_sub2	Rates 29%	dom	259	3.09%
DR1R	DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub1	Rates 23%	mixed	245	2.92%
CB1R	CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1	Rates 38%	dom	201	2.40%
SB2C	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub2	Credit 26% + Macro 15%	dom	156	1.86%
CB0C	CYCLICAL_BULL_sub0	Credit 37%	dom	145	1.73%
MS0X	Macro_Stress_sub0	Mixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 22 + Macro 13)	mixed	112	1.34%
EX0R	EXPANSION_sub0	Rates 33% + Credit 26%	dom	96	1.15%
DR4M	DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4	MAS_aam 40%	dom	91	1.09%
DR0M	DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub0	MAS_aam 55%	pure	89	1.06%
SB3A	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub3	Macro 39% + FinConditions 22%	dom	81	0.97%
EB0R	EARLY_BEAR_sub0	Rates 36% + FinConditions 28%	dom	25	0.30%
MS1A	Macro_Stress_sub1	Macro 100% dominant	pure	24	0.29%
BR0P	STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub0	Positioning 44% + Credit 33%	dom	18	0.21%
EB2Y	EARLY_BEAR_sub2	Cyclical 67%	dom	6	0.07%
EB1Q	EARLY_BEAR_sub1	Equity 100% (n=4 small sample)	pure	4	0.05%

32y Distribution — Top 10 (Member + Internal)

회원 노출 Member regime + 내부 분석 DataLeads code의 32y 발생 빈도 Top 10 비교.

외부용 — Member Regime Top 10

Regime	Days	% of 32y
CONSOLIDATION	2,114	25.22%
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION	1,504	17.94%
CYCLICAL_BULL	1,465	17.48%
STRUCTURAL_BULL	1,119	13.35%
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY	850	10.14%
EXPANSION	798	9.52%
STRUCTURAL_BEAR	361	4.31%
STAGFLATION	136	1.62%
EARLY_BEAR	35	0.42%

내부용 — DataLeads Top 10

DataLeads code	Days	% of 32y
MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01	1,382	16.49%
LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01	860	10.26%
X-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01	726	8.66%
EQ-BULL_x_MA-BEAR_01	701	8.36%
MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_04	697	8.32%
EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_08	541	6.45%
MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_09	449	5.36%
LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02	400	4.77%
EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02	392	4.68%
MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_06	342	4.08%

Top 20 Longest Cell Streaks — 32y Persistence

같은 cell이 연속으로 유지된 streak 길이 Top 20. Cell-Track regime의 dwell time 본체. Today cell DR4M 발생 시 row 강조.

#	Ticker	Cell	Days	Start	End
1	SB3A	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub3	56d	2008-10-01	2008-12-18
2	SB1R	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub1	46d	2001-05-22	2001-07-26
3	CB2R	CYCLICAL_BULL_sub2	40d	2002-06-19	2002-08-14
4	SB2C	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub2	39d	2022-08-26	2022-10-20
5	CB3R	CYCLICAL_BULL_sub3	34d	1998-05-05	1998-06-22
6	SB1R	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub1	32d	2008-06-20	2008-08-05
7	CN1R	CONSOLIDATION_sub1	29d	2000-12-05	2001-01-17
8	CB3R	CYCLICAL_BULL_sub3	27d	1996-07-09	1996-08-14
9	DR2X	DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub2	27d	2003-11-24	2004-01-02
10	CN1R	CONSOLIDATION_sub1	25d	2001-10-10	2001-11-13
11	SB0C	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub0	24d	2020-03-06	2020-04-08
12	CN0X	CONSOLIDATION_sub0	23d	2001-08-01	2001-08-31
13	SB0C	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub0	23d	2016-01-13	2016-02-16
14	SB2C	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub2	23d	2018-12-04	2019-01-08
15	CB2R	CYCLICAL_BULL_sub2	22d	1998-08-21	1998-09-22
16	CN0X	CONSOLIDATION_sub0	22d	2001-12-14	2002-01-16
17	BR1X	STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub1	22d	2004-11-04	2004-12-06
18	SB0C	STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub0	22d	2022-06-13	2022-07-14
19	CN1R	CONSOLIDATION_sub1	21d	1998-12-03	1999-01-04
20	CB3R	CYCLICAL_BULL_sub3	21d	1999-05-18	1999-06-16

ARIS Regime Classification — DataLeads PIT-safe (Captain 5/8 APPROVED)

Dashboard / Lyra / Executive Terminal에 실제 노출되는 회원용 본체 regime 이름. Format: [Bull_prefix]-BULL_x_[Bear_prefix]-BEAR_[sub_num] · 12 prefix decoder × 26 cells × source signature = unique PIT-safe name.
Captain V1 정합: "Data Leads All The Way" (5/15) + Cell_Naming_DataLeads_Report_20260508.md (Captain 5/8 APPROVED).

Today Regime (DataLeads PIT-safe)

EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03

Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03)

32y n

days

Tightness

TIGHT ?

silhouette

Purity

92.9%

cluster

Bull Match

52% / 81%

strict / relaxed

Bear Match

45% / 85%

strict / relaxed

Cell DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 · Ticker DR4M · Member MIXED
Cell quality (Captain 5/8 Cell_3Layer_Evaluation 정합) — TIGHT + purity ≥ 80% = high-confidence cluster

12 Prefix Decoder (Captain V1 본체 — DataLeads 회원 노출용)

EQ Equity (주식)

MA Macro (거시지표)

LQ Liquidity (유동성)

RT Rates (금리)

PO Positioning (포지셔닝)

CR Credit (신용)

VL Volatility (변동성)

CM Commodity (원자재)

EN Energy (에너지)

GL Global (글로벌)

FX Forex (외환)

X Other (기타)

26 Cells × DataLeads + Cell Quality — Today Highlighted

각 cell의 DataLeads name + 32y persistence + Cluster quality (silhouette tightness · purity · Bull/Bear signature match %). Captain 5/8 Cell_3Layer_Evaluation 본체 + archive neural_flow_animation_v9 정합.

Cell ID	Ticker	DataLeads	Decoded	n (32y)	Tight	Purity	Bull✓	Bear✓
CONSOLIDATION_sub0	CN0X	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	1382	V.LOOSE	20%	6/34	23/58
CONSOLIDATION_sub1	CN1R	`X-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Other (기타) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	726	V.LOOSE	24%	25/66	23/55
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub0	CB0C	`X-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Other (기타) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	145	LOOSE	58%	16/61	26/72
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1	CB1R	`EQ-BULL_x_PO-BEAR_01`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Positioning (포지셔닝) side 약세 (sub #0	199	LOOSE	64%	13/38	1/15
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub2	CB2R	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	259	LOOSE	72%	8/26	37/75
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub3	CB3R	`LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	860	V.LOOSE	37%	2/15	35/60
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub0	DR0M	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	89	MEDIUM	74%	92/100	37/75
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub1	DR1R	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03)	245	V.LOOSE	67%	0/20	22/73
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub2	DR2X	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	392	V.LOOSE	71%	34/81	18/51
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub3	DR3P	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_04`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #04)	697	V.LOOSE	34%	5/36	23/50
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4	DR4M	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03)	84	TIGHT	93%	52/81	45/85
EARLY_BEAR_sub0	EB0R	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_04`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #04)	25	TIGHT	60%	64/100	24/96
EARLY_BEAR_sub1	EB1Q	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_05`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #05)	4	TIGHT	100%	0/0	0/100
EARLY_BEAR_sub2	EB2Y	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_05`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #05)	6	TIGHT	100%	100/100	0/17
EXPANSION_sub0	EX0R	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_06`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #06)	96	V.LOOSE	43%	31/77	30/82
EXPANSION_sub1	EX1R	`EQ-BULL_x_MA-BEAR_01`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Macro (거시지표) side 약세 (sub #01)	701	V.LOOSE	25%	17/47	7/28
Macro_Stress_sub0	MS0X	`X-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03`	Other (기타) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03)	112	V.LOOSE	41%	28/66	46/79
Macro_Stress_sub1	MS1A	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_07`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #07)	24	TIGHT	100%	21/50	0/92
STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub0	BR0P	`RT-BULL_x_X-BEAR_01`	Rates (금리) driven Bull × Other (기타) side 약세 (sub #01)	18	TIGHT	100%	33/100	89/100
STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub1	BR1X	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_06`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #06)	342	V.LOOSE	40%	1/21	15/45
STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub0	SB0C	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_07`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #07)	340	LOOSE	73%	1/19	59/87
STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub1	SB1R	`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_08`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #08)	541	V.LOOSE	37%	5/32	40/73
STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub2	SB2C	`PO-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Positioning (포지셔닝) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #0	156	LOOSE	61%	0/29	65/90
STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub3	SB3A	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_08`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #08)	81	TIGHT	100%	0/0	0/59
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub0	VR0M	`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_09`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #09)	449	V.LOOSE	24%	6/32	29/61
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub1	VR1R	`LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	400	V.LOOSE	11%	5/16	27/65

Columns: n (32y) = 발현 일수 · Tight = silhouette 분류 (TIGHT/MEDIUM/V.LOOSE) · Purity = cluster 순도 % · Bull✓ / Bear✓ = strict / relaxed signature match %

Today Cell Bull Signature (Top Bull Category EQUITY)

#	Bull-side Neuron
1	ICI_MF_HY
2	FRED_RRP
3	KRE_Regional_Banks
4	RWR
5	ACM_TP10
6	MARGIN_DEBT
7	ITB_Homebuilders_Alt
8	SKYY
9	ICI_MF_LARGE
10	Z_IG_OAS

Today Cell Bear Signature (Top Bear Category EQUITY)

#	Bear-side Neuron
1	NYAD_RAW_56y
2	ARKG
3	XME_Metals_Mining
4	VOX
5	XBI_Biotech_Pharma
6	COT_NDX_NCN
7	Z_VIX_vol
8	JETS_Airlines
9	GDP_QOQ
10	OIH_Oil_Services

Cell signature = DataLeads PIT-safe name 결정의 본체 (Captain 5/8 APPROVED). Bull-side는 cell 안에서 활성화된 neuron category, Bear-side는 억압된 category. Lookback bias 0%.

32y DataLeads Frequency (Top 10)

DataLeads Code	Decoded	Days	% of 32y
`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	1,382	16.49%
`LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	860	10.26%
`X-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_01`	Other (기타) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #01)	726	8.66%
`EQ-BULL_x_MA-BEAR_01`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Macro (거시지표) side 약세 (sub #01)	701	8.36%
`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_04`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #04)	697	8.32%
`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_08`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #08)	541	6.45%
`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_09`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #09)	449	5.36%
`LQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Liquidity (유동성) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	400	4.77%
`EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_02`	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #02)	392	4.68%
`MA-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_06`	Macro (거시지표) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #06)	342	4.08%

Layer 4 — Member Regime (6 Main + 24 Sub, Tier 메시지용)

DataLeads (Layer 3) 위에 추가로 6 main regime grouping (Top 1 source × direction). Bronze/Silver tier 메시지에 사용. 본체 분류는 Layer 3 DataLeads.

STRONG_BULL

32y freq: 31.3%

주요 source dominant + BULL direction

Subs (6):
MAS_aam_BULL · Rates_BULL · Credit_BULL · Macro_BULL
Equity_BULL · Major Stocks_BULL

EXTERNAL_BULL

32y freq: 18.6%

원자재/Energy/Global/Forex driven BULL

Subs (4):
Commodity_BULL · Energy_BULL · Global_BULL · Forex_BULL

POSITION_BULL

32y freq: 5.7%

포지션 driven BULL (margin / COT)

Subs (1):
Positioning_BULL

MIXED TODAY

32y freq: 24.5%

방향 결정 X (혼재)

Subs (6):
Rates_MIXED · Macro_MIXED · Positioning_MIXED · Commodity_MIXED
Forex_MIXED · MAS_aam_MIXED

BEAR_BUILD

32y freq: 14.4%

약세 형성

Subs (6):
Rates_BEAR · Macro_BEAR · Positioning_BEAR · Commodity_BEAR
Forex_BEAR · MAS_aam_BEAR

STRESS

32y freq: 5.4%

Credit/Volatility 위기

Subs (2):
Credit_BEAR · Volatility_BEAR

Classification Method (Phase 3.5 v13)

Step 1: 49 CAT 각자 Bull/Mixed/Bear/Stress 4 direction 측정.
Step 2: Top 1 source dominance 결정 (가장 강한 firing family).
Step 3: Top1 source × direction → 32 sub regimes (Rates_BULL, MAS_aam_BULL, Credit_BEAR 등).
Step 4: 32 sub → 6 main 그루핑 (sub_to_main_mapping).
구분 본질: "어느 source가 driving + 어느 방향인가" → name 자동 생성 (Captain V1 source-based 자체 발견).
Captain V1 정합: 사전 K range X · 32y data가 자체 결정 (Captain V1 "Data Leads All The Way" 5/15 영구 + CD-44/47 K=BIC data-driven 정합).

▶ 32 Sub-to-Main Mapping Full Table (click to expand)

Sub Regime	Main Regime
MAS_aam_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Rates_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Credit_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Macro_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Equity_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Major Stocks_BULL	STRONG_BULL
Commodity_BULL	EXTERNAL_BULL
Energy_BULL	EXTERNAL_BULL
Global_BULL	EXTERNAL_BULL
Forex_BULL	EXTERNAL_BULL
Positioning_BULL	POSITION_BULL
Credit_BEAR	STRESS
Volatility_BEAR	STRESS
Rates_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Macro_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Positioning_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Commodity_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Forex_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
MAS_aam_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Energy_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Global_BEAR	BEAR_BUILD
Macro_MIXED	MIXED
Rates_MIXED	MIXED
Positioning_MIXED	MIXED
Commodity_MIXED	MIXED
Forex_MIXED	MIXED
MAS_aam_MIXED	MIXED
Credit_MIXED	MIXED
Equity_MIXED	MIXED
Volatility_MIXED	MIXED
Energy_MIXED	MIXED
Global_MIXED	MIXED

32y Distribution

External Regime (32y Top 8)

Member Regime	Days	%
data 미가용

Internal Cell (32y Top 10)

Cell (Internal)	Days	%
CONSOLIDATION_sub0	1,382	16.49%
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub3	860	10.26%
CONSOLIDATION_sub1	726	8.66%
EXPANSION_sub1	701	8.36%
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub3	697	8.32%
STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub1	541	6.45%
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub0	449	5.36%
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub1	400	4.77%
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub2	392	4.68%
STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub1	342	4.08%

L5 Cell Ticker — Today: DR4M (DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4) ▶ SPRC L5 Detail

Cell DR4M = DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 · Source dominance: MAS_aam 40% · tag: dom · ERA: 2025+.
32y persistence: 91 days (1.09%) · rank 19/26 · streak 1d.

tag 의미 — 26 cells 각자 source category 집중도 (cell_ticker_mapping.json):
• dom (dominance, 12 cells): 1 prefix가 35~55% 차지 — 예: CB1R Rates 38% · CB0C Credit 37%
• mixed (11 cells): 어느 prefix도 dominant 안 함 — 예: CN0X Rates 17 + MAS_aam 15 + Commodity 10
• pure (3 cells): 1 prefix가 ≥55% 차지 — 예: DR0M MAS_aam 55% · EB1Q Equity 100%
Today DR4M tag = dom → 1 prefix dominance (35~55%).

Cell의 Hebbian-derived emergent profile + 32y forward outcome + Multi-window Synaptic Transmission 자세히 → SPRC page

HISTORY — 과거는 무엇을 말하는가

32y Direction History + Cell Track + Top 20 Firing · 과거 정합 검증

D1. 12 Prefix Stages — 각자 family 진단 (Detailed)

각 prefix 펼치기 → Bull/Bear firing 본격 + driver Top 3 + 진단.

1 EQ — Equity Bull 3 · Bear 2

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
SPMO	+3.03σ
XLK	+2.89σ
SOXX	+2.88σ

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
IWF	-3.65σ
IWF_SLP50	-3.65σ

Findings: Today EQ = 3 Bull / 2 Bear. Mixed.

2 MA — Macro Bull 2 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
RETAIL_SALES	+12.82σ
NFP	+6.77σ

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today MA = 2 Bull / 0 Bear. Bull-driven.

3 LQ — Liquidity Bull 0 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today LQ = 0 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

4 RT — Rates Bull 0 · Bear 2

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Z_GT5	-2.76σ
Z_GT2	-2.75σ

Findings: Today RT = 0 Bull / 2 Bear. Bear-driven.

5 PO — Positioning Bull 1 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
MARGIN_DEBT	+2.97σ

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today PO = 1 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

6 CR — Credit Bull 0 · Bear 4

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
HY_TR	-3.98σ
IG_TR	-3.82σ
SP_B_BB	-3.75σ
B_OAS	-3.52σ

Findings: Today CR = 0 Bull / 4 Bear. Bear-driven.

7 VL — Volatility Bull 0 · Bear 1

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
VRP	-2.76σ

Findings: Today VL = 0 Bull / 1 Bear. Mixed.

8 CM — Commodity Bull 0 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today CM = 0 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

9 EN — Energy Bull 1 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
CRACK_SPREAD	+3.34σ

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today EN = 1 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

10 GL — Global Bull 0 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today GL = 0 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

11 FX — Forex Bull 0 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today FX = 0 Bull / 0 Bear. Mixed.

12 X — Other (Mixed) Bull 3 · Bear 0

Bull-side firing

Neuron	z
MAS_AAM_200_XLRE	+3.53σ
RT_XLK_XLU	+3.51σ
MAS_AAM_56_XLRE	+3.17σ

Bear-side firing

Neuron	z
Today firing 없음

Findings: Today X = 3 Bull / 0 Bear. Bull-driven.

D2. 32y Direction History + Regime History — 3 Charts ▶ Cinematic Timeline (32y playback)

32y daily ARIS data 시각화. cat votes + Net direction + 위기/Bull 주요 시기 + Synaptic transmission.

Chart 1: 32y cat_bull vs cat_bear Daily

Chart 2: 32y Net Direction (Bull - Bear)

Chart 3: 32y Cell Family Track (Regime History)

32y Major Crisis Periods

GFC (Lehman → Bottom)

2008-09 ~ 2009-03

COVID Crash → V-bounce

2020-02 ~ 2020-04

2022 Inflation Bear

2022-01 ~ 2022-10

Tariff Bear → Bottom

2025-02 ~ 2025-04

Top 5 Synaptic Transmissions (32y most frequent Cell → Cell)

From	→ To	Count	% of transitions
EXPANSION_sub1	CONSOLIDATION_sub0	124	4.75%
CONSOLIDATION_sub0	EXPANSION_sub1	101	3.87%
CONSOLIDATION_sub0	V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub0	101	3.87%
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub0	CONSOLIDATION_sub0	99	3.80%
CONSOLIDATION_sub0	DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub3	92	3.53%

D3. Top 20 Firing Neurons — 3 Charts

Today의 axon z 최강 Top 20. 3 angle 차트로 분리.

Chart 1: Source Category

Chart 2: Top 10 Bull (z > 0)

Chart 3: Top 10 Bear (z < 0)

Cinematic 32y playback → Regime Timeline · L5 cursor-synced → L5 Cell Detail

Machine Learning · TGN (Temporal Graph Network)

Captain V1 "Graph 96% alpha = Synapse" 정량 검증 · Walk-forward 25/25 positive · Wall Street Tier 1 차별화

ARIS Paradigm Shift — 왜 ML alpha edge ~13%가 본체인가

일반 ML: accuracy 40-60% (LSTM / Transformer / kNN · raw data 분류) · ARIS: alpha edge ~13% (small but meaningful · walk-forward verified) · 본질: "Synapse Network 자체가 AI" — ML은 Graph propagation 본체에만 적용 (Captain V1)

Captain V1 정합 — 왜 13%인가? 왜 Synapse가 AI인가?

일반 quant ML의 paradigm:
Raw market data → ML model (LSTM / Transformer / kNN) → 분류 → 예측
Accuracy 보통 40-60% (raw data noise + 시장 변동 + overfit risk).

ARIS의 paradigm shift (Captain V1):
Raw data → Synapse Network (294 neuron × 8 dim · sign-corrected · 32y trained) → ML (TGN) → 예측
= "Synapse Network 자체가 이미 AI 분류 layer"
= ML은 raw data 분류 X → Graph propagation 본체에만 적용
→ Alpha edge ~13% (small but meaningful · walk-forward verified)

왜 13%가 의미 있는가:
• 일반 ML 50% accuracy = "동전 던지기" (random)
• Quant edge 2-5% = institutional standard
• ARIS edge 9-13% = institutional 3-6배 차별화
• Walk-forward 25/25 positive (100%) = robust
• Status-only ML (LSTM / Transformer / kNN) 모두 -5 ~ -12pp negative edge
→ "Graph (Synapse)이 결정적 missing piece" (Captain 5/6 PM 정량 발견)

Captain V1 발화 (영구 보존):
"Graph 96% alpha = Synapse" (2026-05-06 PM)
"우리 Synapse가 AI" (Captain V1 본체)
"Wall Street Tier 1 차별화 = TGN architecture 자체"

Walk-forward 32y 검증 — Captain 5/12 Tella PC validation

Metric	Value	Note
Windows positive	25 / 25	100% positive edge
Edge range	+9.06pp ~ +12.86pp	mean improvement (best/worst window)
2022 Inflation Bear	+27.78pp	Crisis catch (cell-level 0% baseline)
2023-2024 stability	+11.0pp	regime change 후 보존
2025 Tariff cycle	+0.4pp	새 regime positive 유지

Source: tgn_walkforward_summary.json · Captain 5/12 Tella PC 32y validation

ML Architecture 비교 — Captain 5/6 PM 정량 발견 (Status-only 모두 negative)

Architecture	Walk-forward Edge	Note
TGN v1 (Graph + GRU)	+8.0pp	full model ·
μ-6 GraphSAGE-only	+7.7pp	96% alpha = Graph
Temporal contribution	+0.3pp	4% (보조)
LSTM (Status-only)	-5 ~ -10pp	negative edge!
Transformer (Status-only)	-7 ~ -12pp	negative edge!
kNN (Status-only)	-5 ~ -8pp	negative edge!

"Graph (Synapse)이 결정적 missing piece" (Captain 5/6 PM 정량 발견)
→ ARIS의 진정한 alpha = Graph (Synapse Network) 자체
→ Status-only ML 모두 negative edge → Synapse Network 없이 일반 ML 적용 = 손실

Architecture (TGN v1) — Graph + GRU · 40,712 params

Component	Detail
Model	TGN v1 (B-4 production)
Architecture	2-layer SAGE + GRU
seq_len	60
Params	40,712
Train time	GPU 8.5h
Epoch	8

Source forecast: today_tgn_forecast.json
Walk-forward summary: tgn_walkforward_summary.json

Today TGN +30D Prediction

Top 5 Bullish Predicted

#	Neuron	Category
1	SP_VIX_VIX3M	volatility
2	MA200D_SPX	equity
3	AAII_BullBear_Spread	sentiment
4	BBB_SP	credit
5	COT_EUR_NCN	positioning

Top 5 Bearish Predicted

#	Neuron	Category
1	NFP	macro
2	CARZ	industry
3	GASOLINE	energy
4	CCC_OAS	credit
5	VOX	industry

Today TGN Cell Prediction:
• Today cell: DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4
• TGN predicted (+30D): DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 (self-loop = cell stays — regime stability signal)
• Reference date: 2026-05-05 · Status: ML 진행 중 (테스트 + extension 의무)

Wall Street Tier 1 차별화 (Captain V1 본체)

TGN architecture 자체 = Synapse Network ML 본체 (다른 곳에 없음)
Walk-forward 100% positive + edge 9.1-12.9pp = institutional 3-6배
Per-stock direct prediction 확장 가능성 (F-Tier 1500 stocks 도착 시)
AI Chain Composite Index +30D Phase 1-4 합성 가능
Sector rotation 명시 (11 SPDR → 어디서 어디로 이동)

Layer 1 — Cell	DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 (Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC, internal cluster)
Layer 2 — Ticker	DR4M (4-letter, cell_ticker_mapping)
Layer 3 — DataLeads PIT-safe	EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03 (Captain 5/8 APPROVED · 내부 Regime)
Layer 4 — Member Regime	MIXED / Credit_MIXED (6 main + 24 sub · Tier 메시지용)
Layer 5 — Internal (보조)	DR4M_MIXED_2025+ (ERA × Cell × Direction · 52 unique)
Decoded	Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03)
Independent axis	CRS NORMAL · ERA 2025+ · Maturity 0.00x · Divergence +0.116

방법	Year	특징	ARIS와 차이
HMM Hamilton	1989	Hidden state from returns	Cell independently defined
GMM	classical	Point-in-time clustering	GMM = Cell layer only, Track 별도
Forward-return labeling	quant std	미래 수익률로 분류	CD-12 위반, ARIS = PIT-safe
BOCPD	2007	Bayesian changepoint	변화만 감지, Regime 분류 X
Hierarchical Trajectory	2017	2-layer trajectory	유사 본질, 다른 domain
SAX	2007	Symbolic sequence	유사 sequence, single-var
H-ETE-GNN	2025	Graph + TE + Hurst	유사 본질, ARIS TGN 정합
ARIS	2026	Cell Track (5-layer) Hebbian neural	Unique combination