Today
2026-05-15
5/11 EOD partial (BP)
Cell Ticker ⓘ
CB1R
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1
CB=Cyclical Bull · 1=sub1 · R=Rates dominant
Verdict
WEAK_BULL
L4 5 doctors avg +0.20
ASI ⓘ
+0.2039
Bull-active · directional
GEX (SPX) ⓘ
+$9.07B
SqzM · 2026-05-14
1 TODAY 시장 지표 + VERDICTInternal / External Split · Maturity Pullback → V-bounce 회복
49 CAT 평균 -0.032 (Neutral) vs 294 Neuron 평균 -0.153 (Bear) — Divergence +0.121. 표면과 내부 분기 = 32y CONFLICT pattern 정합 (Lehman/GFC/COVID/2022 Inflation/2025 Tariff 모두 catch).
표면 BULL axis (master_db today)
v_l42 Bull Engine : +0.70 BULL (BP BULL_HIGH)v_l41 Confluence : +0.00
v_crs CRS state : +0.50 RECOVERY
Source-level Top 20 : 11 Bull / 9 Bear
Cell character : CB1R (CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1)
Member Regime : EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03
= Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03)
내부 BEAR axis (master_db today)
v_p5 Phase 5 L0 : -0.153 BEARmaster_db level_0 : -0.153 (정합)
CAT distribution : Bull 13 / Neutral 16 / Bear 20 Bear 우세
Divergence : +0.121 HIGH
5DWA (5 Doctors Weighted Avg) : +0.21 → l4_verdict WEAK_BULL
Verdict: Internal / External Split · Maturity Pullback → V-bounce 회복.
표면 Bull cycle BULL_HIGH + 내부 BEAR (L0 -0.153) = Maturity Pullback 진입.
Bull cycle 380 days (mean 274 × 1.39 = MATURE 통과).
→ Forecast 60d -8.5% / 250d +17.2% (Cell CB1R 201 samples, 2025+ ERA)
→ V-bounce trigger ETA: 47-60일 (maturity-based)
→ Forecast 60d -8.5% / 250d +17.2% (Cell CB1R 201 samples, 2025+ ERA)
→ V-bounce trigger ETA: 47-60일 (maturity-based)
FORECAST 자세한 분석 — Pullback / V-bounce timeline
| Today (시작점) | 2026-05-15 · Cell CB1R · Maturity 1.39x |
| 저점 ETA (Pullback bottom) | 47-60 trading days 후 (≈ 2026-07-19 ~ 2026-08-07) |
| 60d Pullback window | 2026-05-15 ~ 2026-08-07 · -8.5% (sign 19% 약세 확률) |
| 250d V-bounce target | 2027-04-30 · +17.2% (sign 94% 강세 확률) |
| Member Regime | EQ-BULL_x_EQ-BEAR_03 = Equity (주식) driven Bull × Equity (주식) side 약세 (sub #03) (12 prefix 풀이 — Regime page) |
해석: Today (2026-05-15)부터 약 3개월 동안 ASI/RRM Divergence HIGH zone 통과 → 47-60 trading days 후 (≈ 2026-07-19 ~ 2026-08-07)에 단기 저점 도달 → 250d horizon (2027-04-30) V-bounce target. 32y similar cases (sign 94%) = 양봉 회복 confidence.
2 SOURCE 분석 — 왜 이 진단인가ASI (z score) + RRM (Direction × Strength) — 두 metric 통합 view
신경망 활성도 상위 source neurons. Bull/Bear count + 카테고리 분포 추적. Ⓟ = Pruning candidate (|z| < 1.5σ, synapse 약화).
Top 3 Categories
| # | Category | N |
|---|
Top 5 Sub-Source Neurons
Bull 11 / Bear 9
Top 20 Active Neurons (ASI · raw signed z)
Direction × Strength (RRM · phase5 contrarian, -tanh)
direction column: + Bull-active / − Bear-active (contrarian mirror).
strength = magnitude (0~1). |direction × strength| 큰 neuron = strong contribution. Ⓟ = Pruning (|dir| < 0.3 또는 strength < 0.3).
BULL-side (direction-applied)
BEAR-side (direction-applied)
3 PAST FLOW — T-60 ~ T-4 trajectorymaster_db.csv 실측
7 timepoints. CRS / Cell transition / 5 doctors 변화 추적.
| Date | Cell | Member Regime | 5 Drs | ASI (HAFS) | RRM | BP | CRS | Verdict |
|---|
4 HISTORICAL ANALOGS32y similar (294-dim cosine, ERA-conditional)
Phase 3.5 v10 — last 250d 제외 (lookback bias 회피). Top 1 per ERA.
5 FORECAST MULTI-WINDOWCell CB1R · 4 ERA × 7 horizons · Internal Timeline 정합
Phase 3.5 v10 cell forward returns by ERA. Last 250d 제외 (lookback bias 회피).
6 CELL × CELL TRANSITIONPhase 3.3 Markov-style
Cell character ≠ Price direction: 60d DR4M 32% stay = "defensive rotation character 유지",
BUT SPY 60d -11.5% (Pos 0%, MDD -18%) = "그 character 안에서도 가격 하락".
| Horizon | Top 1 (확률) | Top 2 (확률) | Top 3 (확률) |
|---|
7 L4 VERDICT — 5 DOCTORS VOTEmaster_db.csv multi-axis
| Doctor | Source | Vote | Direction | Status |
|---|
5DWA (5 Doctors Weighted Avg): +0.21 · l4_verdict: WEAK_BULL · Bull 2 / Neutral 3 / Bear 0
v_l11 DEPRECATED (CD-51 5/9) — 4 active doctors 운영 · 5DWA 계산은 5 axes 평균 (v_l11=0 포함, legacy compat)
v_l11 DEPRECATED (CD-51 5/9) — 4 active doctors 운영 · 5DWA 계산은 5 axes 평균 (v_l11=0 포함, legacy compat)
8 ASSET RISK PROFILE — 29 자산 (Long / Short)Cell CB1R 32y · PRELIMINARY
참고용 — Engine 3 완성 시까지 미완 (preliminary).
현재 표시 = E1 (294 macro neurons) cell-distribution 평균. 실제 stock-level signal은 E3 (F-Tier 1500 stocks) Fundamental + Position Engine 완성 후 산출.
LONG Top 5 (median +250d)
| Asset | +60d | +250d | Pos% | MDD |
|---|
SHORT 후보 (60d 가장 약세)
| Asset | +30d | +60d | +250d | MDD |
|---|
▶ 29 자산 × 7 Horizons Full Table (Internal Timeline §10 정합)
각 자산별 cell forward returns (Pre_2015 / 2015-2019 / 2020-2024 / 2025+ 전체 sample mean). 5d ~ 250d 7 horizons 표시. 단위: % (mean return).
9 PIT VALIDATION + ERA RELIABILITY검증 신뢰도
PIT (Phase 3.5 v10)
1/1 prediction (2020-2024, 100d): +9.15% / Sign 83%Actual 5/8 (88 trading days): +8.64% / Sign 79%
오차: Mean 0.5pp · Sign 4pp · P10 안에 worst (-26%)
= Wall Street Tier 1 차별화 정량 검증
ERA Reliability
DR4M cell distribution (n=87):PRE_2015 : 1 / 87 (1.1%)
2020-2024: 78 / 87 (89.7% ERA_REPLICATE)
2025+ : 8 / 87 (9.2%)
= post-COVID V-bounce pattern 일반화 위험 caveat
10 ARIS PROPOSITION + 종합 결론 + TGNEngine 1 Verdict Synthesis · Horizon-based actionable
10.1 ARIS Proposition — Horizon-based actionable (Today 2026-05-15 기준 dynamic)
10.2 종합 결론 — 1~10 항목 통합 (Unified Verdict)
Today (2026-05-15) 종합 진단:
Cell CB1R (CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1) · Verdict Internal / External Split · Maturity Pullback → V-bounce 회복 · BP 0.5610 (BULL_HIGH, 380d cycle, Maturity 1.39) · ASI -0.1529 (294 neuron mean) · Divergence 0.121 HIGH
→ 49 CAT 평균 -0.032 (Neutral) vs 294 Neuron 평균 -0.153 (Bear) — Divergence +0.121. 표면과 내부 분기 = 32y CONFLICT pattern 정합 (Lehman/GFC/COVID/2022 Inflation/2025 Tariff 모두 catch).
→ 단기 60d (2026-05-15 → 2026-08-07) -8.5% 조정 zone 진입 후 250d (2027-04-30 도달) +17.2% V-bounce (sign 94%) 회복 · 저점 ETA: 47-60 trading days 후 (≈ 2026-07-19 ~ 2026-08-07)
= Cell character + Direction + Top driver (Source 분석) + Multi-Window forecast (60d/250d) 통합 자동 generated
Cell CB1R (CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1) · Verdict Internal / External Split · Maturity Pullback → V-bounce 회복 · BP 0.5610 (BULL_HIGH, 380d cycle, Maturity 1.39) · ASI -0.1529 (294 neuron mean) · Divergence 0.121 HIGH
→ 49 CAT 평균 -0.032 (Neutral) vs 294 Neuron 평균 -0.153 (Bear) — Divergence +0.121. 표면과 내부 분기 = 32y CONFLICT pattern 정합 (Lehman/GFC/COVID/2022 Inflation/2025 Tariff 모두 catch).
→ 단기 60d (2026-05-15 → 2026-08-07) -8.5% 조정 zone 진입 후 250d (2027-04-30 도달) +17.2% V-bounce (sign 94%) 회복 · 저점 ETA: 47-60 trading days 후 (≈ 2026-07-19 ~ 2026-08-07)
= Cell character + Direction + Top driver (Source 분석) + Multi-Window forecast (60d/250d) 통합 자동 generated
10.3 TGN +30d ML Forecast — Captain V1 "Graph 96% alpha = Synapse"
TGN architecture: 2-layer SAGE + GRU · seq_len 60 · 40,712 params
Walk-forward edge: +9.06pp ~ +12.86pp (25/25 positive · 100%) Captain V1 정량 검증
Prediction: Neuron-level 30-day forecast → Cell post-hoc derivation
DLATW Stage 8 — Machine Learning · TGN ▶
Walk-forward edge: +9.06pp ~ +12.86pp (25/25 positive · 100%) Captain V1 정량 검증
Prediction: Neuron-level 30-day forecast → Cell post-hoc derivation
DLATW Stage 8 — Machine Learning · TGN ▶
전체 TGN +30d cell prediction + Top Bullish/Bearish neurons + Walk-forward Captain V1 narrative
(Captain 별도 컴퓨터 GAT training 진행 중 — F-Tier 1500 도착 시 per-stock direct prediction)
(Captain 별도 컴퓨터 GAT training 진행 중 — F-Tier 1500 도착 시 per-stock direct prediction)
Auto Narrative (Internal 교육) · 2026-05-15