| 시나리오 | Primary Trigger | MONITORING | ALERT | CRISIS | Today |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Credit Collapse | KIE Insurance z + IAI Cap Markets z (Phase 5 neuron) | any |z|≥1 | both |z|≥2 | + CRS=CRISIS | Insurance bear (KIE) z=-0.95 · Capital Markets bear (IAI) z=-0.91 · CCC credit OAS z=+0.69 |
| CRE Refinancing Wave | IYR REIT z + ITB Homebuilder z + MORT (Phase 5 neuron) | any |z|≥1 | 2 of 3 |z|≥2 | + Credit OAS >500bp | REIT bear (IYR) z=-0.96 · Homebuilder bear (ITB) z=-0.88 · 10y yield (refi cost) z=+1.63 |
| Rate Shock (Term Premium) | ACM_TP10 z + GT10 yield z (Phase 5 top Bull) | |z|≥1 | |z|≥2 + Credit OAS widening | + CRS=CRISIS | Term premium 10y z=+1.00 · 10y yield z z=+0.92 · GT10 252d z z=+1.63 · GT30 252d z z=+1.72 · ACM_TP10 252d z z=+0.27 |
| AI / Tech Bubble Unwind | MA50D_SPX z + FDN Internet z (Phase 5 neuron) · XLK / Mag7 cracks | any |z|≥1 | + narrow breadth + FDN |z|≥1 | + Margin Debt z≥3 + -10% | SPX MA50 breach z=-1.00 · Internet/AI bear (FDN) z=-0.91 · VIX spike z=+0.06 · MOVE rate vol z=+0.19 |
| Geopolitical Shock | VIX z + Gold z + BTC z (data 자동 wiring 대기) | any z≥+2 | + VIX >25 | + spread blow-out | VIX spike z=+0.06 · Gold safe-haven z=+0.70 · Oil supply shock z=+2.26 |
| China Hard Landing | FXI z + Copper z + USDCNH (data 자동 wiring 대기) | FXI z≤-2 | + Copper z≤-2 | + global EM contagion | FXI bear z=-0.46 · Copper bear z=-1.31 · USDCNH stress z=-2.22 |
| Currency Yen Crisis v2 | USDJPY z + JPY shorts COT (data 자동 wiring 대기) | JPY z≥+2 | + BoJ intervention rumor | + carry trade unwind | USDJPY rate z=+1.16 · Rate vol z=+0.19 |
| Sovereign Debt Stress | GT10/GT30 yield + AAA spreads (Phase 5 + standardized 대기) | 30y yield >5% | + TGA depletion | + downgrade | 10y yield z z=+0.92 · GT30 long-end z=+1.72 · Credit spread z=+0.69 |
매일 자동 체크. 3개 이상 fire = stress 확인 / 5개 이상 = 본격 진행
오늘 Status (auto count): 4 FIRE / 1 WATCH / 5 OK
= stress 확인 단계 (4+ fire = 3+ 기준 충족)
= Multi-signal 분기 진행 중 · regime shift 임박 가능성 · partial hedge 검토
| Signal | Today | Status |
|---|---|---|
| industry:KIE_Insurance | -0.950 | ALREADY Bear |
| industry:IAI_Capital_Markets | -0.913 | ALREADY Bear |
| industry:MORT_Mortgage_REIT | 0.000 | ALREADY Bear |
| industry:IYR (REIT) | -0.961 | ALREADY Bear |
| CRS Credit OAS channel | RECOVERY | 아직 fire X (관찰) |
| Divergence | 0.1206 | HIGH ( > 0.10) |
= ARIS의 Bear-side neurons가 이미 Private Credit ecosystem 압박 detect 중.
Captain의 직관 (질문 자체) = ARIS 신호와 정합.
1-2 BDC / fund dislocation (2024 Q1 NYCB style)
CRS → ALERT (Credit OAS +50-100bp)
SPX impact: -10 ~ -15% (1-3개월) / 6mo 회복
Today overlay: Maturity pullback -8% + Mild -10% = -15~-18%
다수 BDC gate / Insurance industry 손실 발표 (SVB-like cascade)
CRS → CRISIS (Credit OAS +200bp+, VIX 35+)
SPX impact: -20 ~ -25% (3-6개월) / 12mo 회복
Today overlay: -25~-30% total / WEAK_BULL → CRISIS 전환
Systemic contagion (2008 GFC-like) — Insurance + 은행 손상
CRS → CRISIS sustained (multi-quarter)
SPX impact: -40 ~ -60% (12-24개월) / 2-5y 회복
Today overlay: Today verdict 완전 무효 → STRUCTURAL_BEAR
| Signal | Today | Status |
|---|---|---|
| industry:IYR (Real Estate) | -0.961 | ALREADY Bear (대표) |
| industry:MORT_Mortgage_REIT | 0.000 | ALREADY Bear |
| industry:ITB_Homebuilders | -0.876 | ALREADY Bear |
| industry:KIE_Insurance | -0.950 | Insurance CRE exposure |
| 10Y Treasury Yield trend | +0.67σ | 상승 = refi pressure |
| Z_GT10 yield curve | +0.67 | Long-end yields rising |
= REIT / Mortgage / Insurance 모두 이미 Bear-side
+ Long-end yields 상승 = refinancing cost ↑ = CRE distress 가속
일부 office distress / 대형 building defaults
Regional bank stress 부분
SPX impact: -8 ~ -12% (4-6개월) / 6mo 회복
XLRE (REIT ETF): -15~-25% / Regional banks: -20~-30%
Regional bank cascade (2023 SVB-style escalation)
Insurance industry loss recognition
SPX impact: -15 ~ -20% (6-12개월) / 12mo 회복
CRS → ALERT/CRISIS / 32y analog: 2008 commercial real estate aftermath
Systemic banking crisis (small-mid bank failures cascade)
FDIC intervention / Fed liquidity injection
SPX impact: -25 ~ -40% (12-24개월)
32y analog: 2008 GFC banking phase
| Series | Today | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 3M Treasury (DGS3MO) | 3.69% | Fed Funds 정합 |
| 1Y Treasury (DGS1) | 3.50% | front-end |
| 2Y Treasury (DGS2) | 3.79% | Fed policy expectation |
| 5Y Treasury (DGS5) | 3.91% | mid-curve |
| 10Y Treasury (DGS10) | 4.30% | 상승 압력 (ACM_TP10 +0.66) |
| 30Y Treasury (DGS30) | 4.90% | Long-end 상승 진행 |
| 10Y - 2Y spread | +0.51% | 정상 곡선 (re-steepened post-inversion) |
| 10Y - 3M spread | +0.65% | 정상 |
| 5Y - 30Y spread | +0.94% | long-end steeper |
| 10Y Term Premium (ACM_TP10) | +0.66 | 상승 추세 (Today Top Bull +1.0σ) |
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.47% | 상승 (Fed 2% target 초과) |
| 5Y Breakeven | 2.69% | 단기 inflation 기대 강함 |
| 5Y5Y Forward Inflation | 2.27% | 장기 anchored |
| Fed Funds Rate (DFF) | 3.64% | cutting cycle 진행 |
= ARIS framework가 "Rate-driven rotation" 이미 detect 중
Bull: Commodity reflation + Long-end yields rising
Bear: Rate-sensitive sectors (REIT/Insurance/Mortgage/Homebuilders)
= "Reflation regime" 정합 (1970s / 2022 패턴)
Inflation re-acceleration → Fed cutting cycle pause / reverse
Fed Funds 3.64% → 4.00%+ (50bp hike resume)
SPX impact: -8 ~ -12% / 3-6mo
Historical: 1994 mid-cycle hike → SPX -8% / 6mo recovery
30Y 4.90% → 6.0%+ (Term premium expansion / fiscal concern)
10Y 4.30% → 5.5%+ / Mortgage rate → 8%+
SPX impact: -15 ~ -22% / 6-9mo
특히 위험: CRE refi wave + Rate spike = compound shock
Historical: 1994 bond rout / 2023-10 long-end spike → -10%
Real yields ↑ (TIPS yield 2%+ 진입) = equity multiple compression
Mag7/AI 가장 큰 영향 (long-duration growth stocks)
QQQ -25 ~ -35% / SPX -15 ~ -20%
Historical: 2022 hike cycle (Fed +525bp) → NDX -33% / SPX -25%
Sovereign debt concern + foreign demand collapse + fiscal panic
30Y → 7-8% / dollar volatility extreme
SPX impact: -30 ~ -50% / 12-24mo
Banking stress (UK 2022 LDI-like) / Insurance industry hit
Historical (rare): 1979-1980 Volcker shock / 1994 Mexico tequila crisis
Rate Shock + CRE = compound disaster
연말 CRE refi wave (강조) 시점에 long-end yields 상승 시:
• CRE 차환 비용 ↑↑ (default cascade 가속)
• Regional bank loss recognition
• Insurance industry hit
= "Rate+CRE compound" = systemic risk path
Rate Shock + Tech = real rate compression
Real yields ↑ → Mag7 multiple compression → Tech bubble unwind 가속
= "Rate+Tech compound" = 2022-style replay
| Signal | Today | Status |
|---|---|---|
| industry:XLK (Tech ETF) | +3.42σ | Bull peak (Top 5) |
| equity_extra:QQQ | +3.04σ | Bull peak (Top 5) |
| industry:FDN (Internet) | -0.94 | Already weakening |
| industry:SOXX (Semiconductors) | +2.42σ | Still hot |
| industry:IAI_Capital_Markets | -0.93 | VC funding pressure |
| SPX vs QQQ 90d spread | -10.03pp | QQQ 우세 (Tech overheated) |
| BP (Bull Proximity) | 0.5610 | MID_HIGH MATURE |
= XLK / QQQ / SOXX Bull peak BUT FDN 이미 Bear-side
= "표면 Tech 강세 + 내부 약화" = 분기 진행 중 (Divergence HIGH 정합)
Captain 직관 "지금 미쳤어" = ARIS Top 5 Bull-side peak 정량 정합
Mag7 -15% rotation / AI capex 우려 발표
QQQ -15~-20% / XLK -18~-22%
SPX impact: -8 ~ -12% (3개월) / 6mo 회복
Sector rotation: Tech → Defensive (BRK_B/JNJ/XLP)
AI bubble -30% (NVDA earnings miss / capex 우려 확산)
QQQ -30~-35% / XLK -32~-38%
SPX impact: -15 ~ -22% (6-9개월)
32y analog: 2018 Q4 Tech selloff / 2022 NDX -33%
2000 dot-com style — AI hype 완전 unwind
QQQ -50~-60% / XLK -55~-65%
SPX impact: -40 ~ -50% (18-24개월)
32y analog: 2000-2002 dot-com bust NDX -78%
지역 분쟁 / Tariff escalation. SPX -8 ~ -12% / 3-6mo
Oil $90+ / Gold $5500+ / VIX 30+. Historical: 2018 Tariff war / 2022 Russia
대형 충돌 (Taiwan/Hormuz). SPX -20 ~ -30% / 6-12mo
Oil $120+ / 글로벌 supply chain disruption
광범위 군사 충돌 / 핵 위협. SPX -40 ~ -60% / 12-24mo
Historical: 1973 Yom Kippur Oil / 1990 Gulf War
일부 부동산 default / Yuan 7.5 break. SPX -5 ~ -8% / 3mo
Asia EM -15 ~ -20% / Commodity 약화
은행 시스템 stress / 디플레 spiral. SPX -12 ~ -18% / 6mo
Apple / Tesla 매출 hit / Industrial 수요 collapse
금융 시스템 붕괴 / Capital flight. SPX -25 ~ -40% / 12-24mo
Historical: 1997 Asian Crisis (지역 confined BUT global contagion)
USD/JPY +5% / DXY +3%. SPX -8 ~ -12% / 3-6주
NDX -13 ~ -18% (2024-08 패턴 정합)
DXY 110+ surge / EM currency crisis. SPX -15 ~ -22% / 6mo
Historical: 2022 strong dollar / 1998 Asian crisis precursor
Global currency war / capital control. SPX -30 ~ -45%
Historical: 1985 Plaza Accord precursor (long-term 변화)
Political brinksmanship / Treasury auction failure threat. SPX -8 ~ -12% / 1-2mo
30Y yield +100bp / Historical: 2011 / 2013 / 2023 patterns
30Y yield 6%+ break / 외국 매수 collapse. SPX -18 ~ -25% / 6-12mo
Banking system stress (UK 2022 LDI-like) / Fed emergency intervention
Technical default / Dollar reserve status 위협. SPX -40 ~ -60% / 24mo+
Historical: 1933 Gold standard suspension / 1971 Nixon shock
= long-term world monetary system 재편
Sovereign + Rate + CRE = compound disaster
30Y yield spike → CRE refi wave 절망 → Banking system stress
= 2008 GFC + 2022 UK LDI hybrid pattern
= "Rate Shock 시나리오 + Sovereign 시나리오 동시 fire 시 systemic"