Dashboard | Executive Terminal Lyra (Quant 종합) 12DTA SSJ S4DV SPRC ← DLATW GEX Stress
Terminal32y 종합 narrative · 1685 internal reports L3HAFS Verdict Timeline · ASI 32y · Multi-Window · HAL kNN L4Daily 4 Doctors Verdict · 32y L5 CellPhase 5 Hierarchy (L1+L2) + Cell History · 32y cursor-synced Regime32y Regime cinematic playback (DataLeads · 8,373 days)
ARIS Neuron Network294 neurons full wiring · 32y co-firing structure L3 Neuron Network32y daily neuron timeline · wiring + 49 CAT matrix Neuron MonitorDaily neuron status · audit · freshness · audit chain
Journey
Data Leads All The Way — ARIS QUANT by Two Points Trade LLC

SPRC — Synapse Passes the Right Cell (Hebbian)

L5 — Hebbian Synaptic Network · 2026-05-18 · Cell DR4M (DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4)
Captain V1 비전: "ARIS = Biological Neural Network" (CLAUDE.md 4/30 PM 영구).
"Fire together, wire together" — Hebb 1949 · LTP/LTD synaptic plasticity.
L5 = 294×294 synaptic weight matrix → Hebbian co-firing emergent → Cell K=26 BIC clustering.
Today: 6,674 active synapses · Genesis 67 · Pruning 90 · P/G 1.34
Today cell = DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 · ticker DR4M · era 2025+.
L5 Details
Active Synapses
6,674
mean 0.567 · Q 0.0035
Scenarios (joint state)
89,856
26 × 6 × 6 × 4 × 4 × 6
Genesis / Pruning
67 / 90
P/G 1.34 · NORMAL
Today Cell (Hebbian)
DR4M
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 · MAS_aam 40%
32y Persistence
91
1.1% · streak 1d
Today Market Noteworthy Findings
구분 ★ Thesis Detail Remark
① Hebbian Foundation
Biological Neural Network
★ "Synapse 중간 — 평상시 cohesion"
Today 6,674 active synapses 측정. 32y normal 평균 약 16,264개와 비교 시 평소보다 적음. Mean strength 0.567로 결속 중간. Modularity Q 0.0035 (low cohesion 양극단 분기 risk). Biggest community 94 neurons, isolated 175 (60%). CRS state NORMAL로 정상 운영. → Captain V1: "Fire together, wire together" Hebbian 본질로 L5 Cell이 emergent. ✓
FOUNDATION
② Synapse Plasticity
Genesis vs Pruning (LTP/LTD)
★ "Balanced — 안정 plasticity"
Today 67개의 새 synapse 형성 (LTP, Long-Term Potentiation) vs 90개 끊김 (LTD, Long-Term Depression). P/G ratio 1.34로 Balanced 안정 plasticity. 32y 비교: Crisis 시 평균 G 41.0 / P 242.0 vs Normal 시 G 44.4 / P 361.4. 현재는 Normal 범위. → Captain V1: NEW_PHASE 25 cases = Synapse Genesis 본질 (regime 시작점). ✓
PLASTICITY
③ Today Cell
Hebbian Emergent Clustering
★ "DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 — 32y 희소 zone (1.09%) · 특정 시기 전용"
Today cell = DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 (DR4M, K=26 BIC data-driven cluster). Source dominance MAS_aam 40% · ERA 2025+ · Member regime MIXED. 32y persistence 91일 (1.09%), 26 cells 중 19위. 현재 streak 1일로 단기 transition 진행. 32y 희소 zone으로 특정 시기 전용. Top firing neurons: STLFSI, Z_NFCI, ICI_DOMESTIC_EQ. ✓
UNCOMMON
④ Synaptic Transmission
Cell propagation 방향
★ "다음 1d → DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_s (76%) 가장 가능"
Today cell → 다음 1d 전이 확률 (Hebbian transition matrix): DEFENSIVE_ROTATION 76% · CONSOLIDATION_sub0 19% · STRUCTURAL_BEAR_su 4%. 가장 가능 시나리오 → DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4로 전이 (76%, high confidence). Recent 30d cell transitions 6번으로 transition active → market reshuffling. → Captain 4/30: "Markov는 그만 → Synaptic Transmission". Action potential propagation through cell network로 다음 phase 예측. ✓
PROPAGATION
⑤ 종합 판단
Hebbian + Cell + Bull Stage
★ "Hebbian 양극단 + Bull mature → V-bounce + mean reversion 동시"
3-Layer 통합 진단:
• Synapse layer: 6,674 active synapses · Modularity Q 0.0035 · P/G ratio 1.34 (cohesion 약화)
• Cell layer: DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 · streak 1일 (단기 transition)
• Bull layer: BP 0.565 · stage BULL_HIGH (mature peak)
UV verdict_forecast: Maturity Pullback → V-bounce 회복. → 3-Layer 동시 정합 시 가장 강한 신호. 		✓
SYNTHESIS
1 Hebbian Foundation — ARIS = Biological Neural Network 6,674 synapses · NORMAL
Stage 1 = Hebbian Foundation — ARIS = Biological Neural Network
"Fire together, wire together (Hebb 1949 · LTP/LTD plasticity)"
측정 방법: 294×294 synaptic weight matrix × 8 dim · w_ij(t+1) = (1-λ)·w_ij(t) + η·fire_i·fire_j

Today Hebbian Synaptic Network Snapshot

Window end2026-05-15
Active synapses6,674
Mean strength (w_ij)0.5667
Max strength1.000
Modularity Q0.0035 (low cohesion)
Biggest community94 neurons
Isolated neurons175 (60%)
Bimodal score0.9090 (양극단)
CRS stateNORMAL

Recent 6 Windows Trend

측정 방법 — 252d Rolling Window × 21d Step
• Window 크기: 252 trading days (1년) — 32y data를 252d 윈도우로 sliding
• Step interval: 21 trading days (≈ 1 calendar month) — 한 달에 한 번 측정
• Total windows: 388 (1993 ~ Today, 32y × 12 monthly steps)
• 이번 측정 window end: 2026-05-15 (이전 window 종료 + 21d step)
• 다음 측정 예정: window end + 21d ≈ 2026-06-14 (calendar 약 1달 후)
• Today (5/15) 위치: 직전 window 2026-05-15에 포함됨 (5/15는 4/16 이후 22d 경과 — 다음 trigger 임박)
Window endActiveMeanGenesisPruningP/GCRS
2025-12-126,5690.576111059.55NORMAL
2026-01-146,5730.57729346.50NORMAL
2026-02-136,4950.583218994.50NORMAL
2026-03-176,3820.594615125.17CRISIS
2026-04-166,4290.5897334.71RECOVERY
2026-05-156,6740.56767901.34NORMAL
Key Findings
# A · 제목 B · 디테일
(1) Hebbian Foundation State Today active synapses 6,674 · mean strength 0.567 · Modularity Q 0.0035 (cohesion 중간). CRS NORMAL.
(2) Captain V1 본체 의미 ARIS = Biological Neural Network (Captain V1, CLAUDE.md 4/30 PM). "Fire together, wire together" Hebbian rule 본체. L5 Cell K=26 BIC = 본 synapse co-firing emergent clustering.
Stage 1 측정 방법 (click to expand)
Hebbian Synaptic Weight Matrix
 • 294 neurons × 294 neurons × 8 multimodal dim
 • Hebbian rule: w_ij(t+1) = (1-λ)·w_ij(t) + η·fire_i·fire_j
 • Source: phase1G_v10_synapse_weight_today.npz (3.8 MB, daily)
 • Window end: 2026-05-15 · CRS state: NORMAL
 • Active synapses: 6,674 · Mean strength: 0.5667
Stage 1 종합 결론 (click to expand)
Today Hebbian Foundation 진단
→ ARIS = Biological Neural Network (Captain V1 본체)
→ Active synapses 6,674 (32y normal avg ≈ 16,264)
→ Mean strength 0.567 (중간)
→ Modularity Q = 0.0035 (low cohesion (강한 ATH/Crisis))
→ Biggest community 94 neurons · Isolated 175 (60% 고립)
2 Synapse Genesis & Pruning — Multi-Window Genesis/Pruning G 67 / P 90 · P/G 1.34
Stage 2 = Synapse Genesis & Pruning — Multi-Window Genesis/Pruning
"Atlas SSOT z_60d_sparkline daily granularity (Captain 5/18 정정)"
측정 방법: 5 windows × top 3 rising/falling neurons (1d/5d/15d/30d/60d)

Today LTP/LTD Events

Genesis (LTP, 새 synapse)67
Pruning (LTD, 끊김)90
P/G ratio1.34 ( Balanced)
Crisis baseline (32y avg)G 41.0 · P 242.0
Normal baseline (32y avg)G 44.4 · P 361.4

Multi-Window Genesis / Pruning — 누가 뜨고, 누가 지고 (Captain V1 CD-31)

5 windows × daily granularity (Captain 5/18 정정 — daily z delta)
• Source: Atlas SSOT l4_activation_map_data_LATEST.json (294 neurons × 60d daily sparkline)
• 1d / 5d / 15d / 30d / 60d — 각 horizon별 neuron z 변화량 (z_today - z[-window])
• Genesis (뜨는 neuron): z 증가 top 3 — Bull side activation
• Pruning (지는 neuron): z 감소 top 3 — Bear side activation
• P/G ratio: |Δz| ≥ 0.5σ count 기준 · 높을수록 Bear 우세 (regime shift)
1d
G 1
P 3
P/G 3.00
5d
G 17
P 38
P/G 2.24
15d
G 53
P 39
P/G 0.74
30d
G 125
P 51
P/G 0.41
60d
G 119
P 78
P/G 0.66

Top Genesis neurons by window — 누가 뜨고 (z 증가)

Win1st risingΔzz then→now2ndΔz3rdΔz
1dMOVE+0.53σ+0.21 → +0.73XLRE+0.46σXLP+0.41σ
5dDXY+1.48σ-0.66 → +0.82MOVE+1.31σSKEW+0.93σ
15dSP_CCC_BB+10.97σ-10.01 → +0.95IG_TR+10.56σCCC_OAS+9.86σ
30dCRACK_SPREAD+5.89σ-2.56 → +3.34RT_XLK_XLU+4.03σWTI_BRENT_SPREAD+3.41σ
60dRETAIL_SALES+13.18σ-0.36 → +12.82CRACK_SPREAD+5.22σRT_VTI_EZU+4.11σ

Top Pruning neurons by window — 누가 지고 (z 감소)

Win1st fallingΔzz then→now2ndΔz3rdΔz
1dGEX-4.56σ+4.45 → -0.11DIX-1.88σRT_MDYG_MDYV-0.59σ
5dGBPUSD-1.84σ+1.06 → -0.78DIX-1.77σB_OAS-1.51σ
15dB_OAS-5.56σ+9.08 → +3.52SP_B_BB-5.34σRETAIL_SALES-4.56σ
30dRETAIL_SALES-29.82σ+42.65 → +12.82HY_TR-4.99σIG_TR-4.48σ
60dHY_TR-5.37σ+1.38 → -3.98IG_TR-5.34σIWF_SLP50-4.03σ
Key Findings
# A · 제목 B · 디테일
(1)단기 (1d-5d) 점화 vs 급랭MOVE +0.53σ 빠르게 점화 · 동시에 GEX -4.56σ 단기 급랭. 당일 sensitive volatility / liquidity reaction.
(2)중기 (15d-30d) 누적 풍향 변경SP_CCC_BB +10.97σ · CRACK_SPREAD +5.89σ 누적 상승. 반대로 RETAIL_SALES -29.82σ 가속 후퇴. 15d-30d horizon이 진정한 regime 진화 방향.
(3)장기 (60d) 수렴 구조60d 전체 변화 top: RETAIL_SALES +13.18σ. 반대 극: HY_TR -5.37σ. 장기 추세의 hidden driver / lagging family.
(4)Short ↔ Long 분기/일관성분기 진행: 단기 (MOVE) vs 장기 (CRACK_SPREAD) 다른 family. 한 window만 보면 놓치는 regime 시작점 — multi-window가 catch.
(5)Captain V1 본체 의미"Fire together, wire together" Hebbian 본체 + NEW_PHASE 25 cases (L3 Stage 3 PHOTO) = Synapse Genesis 본질. Today multi-window는 그 본질이 daily granularity로 시계열 표현된 결과.
Stage 2 측정 방법 (click to expand)
LTP (Genesis) vs LTD (Pruning) Events
 • Genesis = 새 synapse 생성 (w prev=0, w now ≥ threshold)
 • Pruning = synapse 끊김 (w prev ≥ threshold, w now=0)
 • Today (window 2026-05-15):
   Genesis = 67 · Pruning = 90 · P/G ratio = 1.34
 • 32y data: Genesis 6,324 events · Pruning 9,028 events (1998-2026)
Stage 2 종합 결론 (click to expand)
Synapse Plasticity 진단
→ Today P/G ratio = 1.34 ( Balanced)
→ Crisis baseline avg: Genesis 41.0 · Pruning 242.0
→ Normal baseline avg: Genesis 44.4 · Pruning 361.4
→ Captain V1 정합: NEW_PHASE (25 cases) = Synapse Genesis 본질 동일
3 Today Top Firing Neurons & Synapses — Hebbian signature 5 neurons · 5 synapses
Stage 3 = Today Top Firing Neurons & Synapses — Hebbian signature
"오늘 가장 강하게 firing한 neurons + 가장 강한 synaptic connections"
측정 방법: Phase 1 G daily window → top 8 firing neurons + top 8 synapses (w_ij)

Today Top Firing Neurons — Hebbian-derived signature

측정 방법 — Hebbian z-score 강도 ranking
• 294 neurons × 8 multimodal dim → 각 neuron의 firing intensity 측정
• Hebbian rule: 함께 firing하는 neurons → synaptic weight ↑
• Top firing = 가장 강한 신호 발산 (시장이 "주목하는" 영역)
• Top synapses w ≈ 1.0 = 두 neuron이 max coupling으로 결속 (cross-category)
RankNeuronSource category
1STLFSIbreadth
2Z_NFCIbreadth
3ICI_DOMESTIC_EQflow
4ICI_ETF_BOND_LTflow
5ICI_MF_HYflow

Today Top Synapses — 가장 강한 cross-category coupling (w ≈ 1.0)

RankNeuron pairw_ij
1COT_DOLLAR ↔ ICI_MF_HY1.000
2MARGIN_DEBT ↔ COT_WTI_NCN1.000
3ICI_MF_MIDCAP ↔ COT_VIX_NCN1.000
4COT_NDX_NCN ↔ COT_DXY_NCN1.000
5COT_NDX_NCN ↔ COT_WTI_NCN1.000
Key Findings
# A · 제목 B · 디테일
(1) Hebbian Emergent Cell ID Raw cluster 21785 → DataLeads K=26 BIC mapping DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 (DR4M). Phase 1 G의 raw Hebbian co-firing clustering이 Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC supervised renaming으로 자연 정합.
(2) Top Firing 카테고리 분포 breadth, flow 카테고리 = 시장의 "주된 신경 발화 영역". Top 1 STLFSI가 가장 강한 z-score. Captain V1 "어떤 source가 driving" 정합.
(3) Top Synapses w=1.0 의미 Max coupling = 32y rolling에서 "lockstep firing" 강한 LTP 결합. Top 3 synapse 중 cross-category pair = 3개. 다른 카테고리간 wiring 강할수록 regime shift 신호.
(4) Captain V1 본체 의미 Firing signature = 32y Hebbian learning "굳어진" wiring 정보 (단순 raw correlation X). ARIS = Biological Neural Network 본체 — 시장의 "synapse memory" 직접 read. 다음 layer Stage 4 Cell에서 종합 진단.
Stage 3 측정 방법 (click to expand)
Hebbian-Derived Top Firing Signature
 • Top firing neurons = 가장 강하게 firing한 neurons (Hebbian z-score)
 • Top synapses = 가장 강한 connection (w_ij ≈ 1.0)
 • Source: phase1_G_daily_cell_ids.csv (388 windows)
 • Today cell_id (Hebbian emergent): 21785
 • Top firing count: 5 · Top synapse count: 5
Stage 3 종합 결론 (click to expand)
Today firing signature 진단
→ Top firing: STLFSI, Z_NFCI, ICI_DOMESTIC_EQ, ICI_ETF_BOND_LT
→ 강한 synapse w=1.0 pairs (max coupling)
→ Captain V1 정합: "neuron 발화 시그니처" 본체
→ 본 firing signature → emergent cell K=26 BIC clustering으로 자연 도출
4 Today Cell + 32y Membership + Sequence Timeline (통합) DR4M · streak 1d · prev CYCLICAL_BULL_
Stage 4 = Today Cell + 32y Membership + Sequence Timeline (통합)
"Today cell ID + 32y persistence + recent 30d sequence"
측정 방법: 통합: 이전 Stage 4 (Cell) + 6 (Membership) + 9 (Sequence Timeline)

Today vs Previous Cell — Cell Transition history (Captain 5/17 추가)

↶ Previous Cell
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1
2d dwell
→
Today Cell
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4
DR4M · 진행 1d (since 2026-05-18)

Today Cell Detail

Cell IDDEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4
Ticker (4-letter)DR4M
Top category (Source dominance)MAS_aam 40%
Tagdom
Member regime (main) MIXED
Sub regimeCredit_MIXED
ERA2025+
Cell entry date (진행 시작)2026-05-18
Cell duration (진행 일 수)1 days
Previous cellCYCLICAL_BULL_sub1 (2d dwell)

32y Membership — this Cell의 통계

32y count (이 cell이 나온 일수)91 days
32y percentage1.09%
Rank (26 cells 중)19위
Current streak1 days

Top 10 Cells by 32y Frequency

Cell IDDays% of 32y
CONSOLIDATION_sub0138216.5%
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub386010.3%
CONSOLIDATION_sub17268.7%
EXPANSION_sub17018.4%
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub36978.3%
STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub15416.5%
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub04495.4%
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub14004.8%
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub23924.7%
STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub13424.1%

Recent 30 days Cell Sequence — 순서별 timeline

Date
Cell
특징 · 사실관계
정합성
추가
2026-04-07
CYCLICAL_BULL_su
continue · Rates 28% + MAS_aam 14%-driven
32y medium
CB3R
2026-04-08
EXPANSION_sub1
TRANSITION from CYCLICAL_BULL_ · Rates 25%-driven
32y medium
EX1R
2026-04-09
EXPANSION_sub1
continue · Rates 25%-driven
32y medium
EX1R
2026-04-10
EXPANSION_sub1
continue · Rates 25%-driven
32y medium
EX1R
2026-04-13
CONSOLIDATION_su
TRANSITION from EXPANSION_sub1 · Mixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 15 + Commodity 10)-driven
32y medium
CN0X
2026-04-14
CONSOLIDATION_su
continue · Mixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 15 + Commodity 10)-driven
32y medium
CN0X
2026-04-15
CONSOLIDATION_su
continue · Mixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 15 + Commodity 10)-driven
32y medium
CN0X
2026-04-16
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
TRANSITION from CONSOLIDATION_ · Positioning 18%-driven
32y medium
DR3P
2026-04-17
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · Positioning 18%-driven
32y medium
DR3P
2026-04-20
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · Positioning 18%-driven
32y medium
DR3P
2026-04-21
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · Positioning 18%-driven
32y medium
DR3P
2026-04-22
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · Positioning 18%-driven
32y medium
DR3P
2026-04-23
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · Positioning 18%-driven
32y medium
DR3P
2026-04-24
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · Positioning 18%-driven
32y medium
DR3P
2026-04-27
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · Positioning 18%-driven
32y medium
DR3P
2026-04-28
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · Positioning 18%-driven
32y medium
DR3P
2026-04-29
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
TRANSITION from DEFENSIVE_ROTA · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-04-30
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-05-01
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-05-04
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-05-05
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-05-06
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-05-07
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-05-08
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-05-11
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-05-12
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-05-13
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
continue · MAS_aam 40%-driven
32y medium
DR4M
2026-05-14
CYCLICAL_BULL_su
TRANSITION from DEFENSIVE_ROTA · Rates 38%-driven
32y medium
CB1R
2026-05-15
CYCLICAL_BULL_su
continue · Rates 38%-driven
32y medium
CB1R
2026-05-18
DEFENSIVE_ROTATI
TODAY · MAS_aam 40%-driven · tag dom
32y medium
DR4M
Key Findings
# A · 제목 B · 디테일
(1) Today cell transition 직전 CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1에서 2d 머문 후 → DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4로 전환 (2026-05-18). 현재 진행 1d. 32y mean dwell ≈ 18d 기준 — 전환 직후 초기.
(2) 32y 위치 DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 = 32y 중 91일 (1.09%) · 26 cells 중 19위. 32y 희소 zone — 특정 시기 전용.
(3) Recent 30d 변동성 Recent 30d cell transitions 6번 (20.0%) — 높은 변동 (regime instability). ERA 2025+ (CD-31 era-aware).
Stage 4 측정 방법 (click to expand)
Phase 3.1 K=26 BIC Cell — Hebbian Emergent
 • 26 cells (data-driven clustering of Hebbian co-firing patterns)
 • 4-letter ticker = Cell prefix(2) + sub(1) + Source(1)
 • Today: DR4M (DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4)
 • Top cat: MAS_aam 40% · tag: dom
Stage 4 종합 결론 (click to expand)
Today Cell 진단
→ cell = DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 (DR4M)
→ Cell = Hebbian co-firing pattern emergent clustering
→ Source dominance: MAS_aam 40%
→ Era: 2025+
→ Member regime: MIXED / sub: Credit_MIXED
5 Cell Naming + Source Domain + 종합 결론 (통합) DEFENSIVE_ROTA · MAS_aam 40%
Stage 5 = Cell Naming + Source Domain + 종합 결론 (통합)
"DataLeads PIT-safe + Source dominance + ARIS 종합 진단"
측정 방법: 통합: 이전 Stage 5 (Naming) + 8 (Cell × Source) Today + 종합

Today — Naming + Source Domain

Cell ID (DataLeads PIT-safe)DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4
Ticker (4-letter)DR4M
Top Category (Source dominance)MAS_aam 40%
Tagdom dominant single source
Member regime MIXED / Credit_MIXED
Key Findings
# A · 제목 B · 디테일
(1) Today Source Dominance MAS_aam 40%가 dominant — Today cell (DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4)의 source signature. tag dom로 single source 우세.
(2) DataLeads PIT-safe Naming Captain 5/8 APPROVED — lookback bias 없이 32y daily data로 26 cells 명명. 외부 academic label (Stagflation/Reflation 등) 사용 X — naming bias 회피. 5/12 Macro_Stress 정정 (Stagflation → Macro_Stress, Captain 5/9 명령).
(3) 종합 결론 (3-Layer) L5 Cell DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 · Source MAS_aam 40% · Member MIXED. → ARIS 4-Layer Conclusion 본체 (Stage 8 결합으로 최종).
Stage 5 측정 방법 (click to expand)
DataLeads PIT-safe Naming (Captain 5/8 APPROVED)
 • 외부 academic label 금지 (Stagflation 등 → Macro_Stress 정정 5/12)
 • Cell prefix + sub + source dominance
 • 26 cells 전체 명명 검증 완료 (선배 KODA 1 Stella 5/8)
Stage 5 종합 결론 (click to expand)
Captain V1 정합
→ "Data Leads All The Way" 본체 (5/15 영구 원칙)
→ 외부 이론 적용 X (Hamilton HMM 등 폐기, CD-49)
→ ERA-aware (PRE_2015 / 2015-2019 / 2020-2024 / 2025+ 4 ERAs)
6 26 Cells × 13 Sources Full Breakdown (sidebar reference) 26 cells × 16 sources = 338 combos
Stage 6 = 26 Cells × 13 Sources Full Breakdown (sidebar reference)
"전체 cell × source 결합 matrix · 13 source code reference 옆에"
측정 방법: 이전 Stage 8 본격 표 + sidebar (Captain 5/18 scroll 줄임)
조합 공간 — Cells × Source full breakdown
• Cells × Source: 26 × 13 = 338 가능 조합 (이론상 최대)
• 실제 관측 조합: 26 cells 각각 1개 dominant source 매핑 (DataLeads 5/8 APPROVED)
• 4-letter ticker: Prefix(2) + Sub(1) + Source(1) — e.g. DR4M
• Joint scenario: 26 × Bull 6 × W3 6 × CRS 4 × ERA 4 = 14,976 통합

26 Cells × Source Full Breakdown

Cell ID (DataLeads)TickerTop Category (Source)Tag
CONSOLIDATION_sub0CN0XMixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 15 + Commodity 10)mixed
CONSOLIDATION_sub1CN1RRates 28%dom
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub0CB0CCredit 37%dom
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub1CB1RRates 38%dom
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub2CB2RRates 29%dom
CYCLICAL_BULL_sub3CB3RRates 28% + MAS_aam 14%dom
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub0DR0MMAS_aam 55%pure
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub1DR1RRates 23%mixed
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub2DR2XMixed (Commodity 21 + MAS_aam 20)mixed
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub3DR3PPositioning 18%mixed
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4DR4MMAS_aam 40%dom
EARLY_BEAR_sub0EB0RRates 36% + FinConditions 28%dom
EARLY_BEAR_sub1EB1QEquity 100% (n=4 small sample)pure
EARLY_BEAR_sub2EB2YCyclical 67%dom
EXPANSION_sub0EX0RRates 33% + Credit 26%dom
EXPANSION_sub1EX1RRates 25%mixed
Macro_Stress_sub0MS0XMixed (Rates 17 + MAS_aam 22 + Macro 13)mixed
Macro_Stress_sub1MS1AMacro 100% dominantpure
STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub0BR0PPositioning 44% + Credit 33%dom
STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub1BR1XMixed (Commodity 16 + Positioning 15 + Forex 13)mixed
STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub0SB0CCredit 22% + Volatility 13%mixed
STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub1SB1RRates 19% + Macro 17%mixed
STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub2SB2CCredit 26% + Macro 15%dom
STRUCTURAL_BULL_sub3SB3AMacro 39% + FinConditions 22%dom
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub0VR0MMAS_aam 17% + Rates 17%mixed
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERY_sub1VR1RRates 25% + Global 13%mixed

13 Source Codes Reference

CodeSource
MMAS_aam
RRates
CCredit
AMacro
EEnergy
QEquity
OCommodity
FForex
PPositioning
VVolatility
DDefensive
LLiquidity
GGlobal
YCyclical
IIndustry
XMixed (no single dominant)
Key Findings
# A · 제목 B · 디테일
(1) 26 × 13 reference table 26 cells 각각의 dominant source + tag (dom/mixed). Sidebar의 13 source code reference로 cell ID 풀이 가능 (scroll 줄임).
Stage 6 측정 방법 (click to expand)
32y Cell Persistence Measurement
 • Total master_db days: 8382
 • Today cell (DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4) frequency: 91 days (1.1%)
 • Current streak (consecutive days): 1 days
Stage 6 종합 결론 (click to expand)
32y persistence 진단
→ Today cell = 32y 중 91일 (1.1%)
→ Streak: 1d (short transition)
→ Medium cell
7 Synaptic Transmission + Multi-Window Forecast (통합) 4 next states · 7 windows
Stage 7 = Synaptic Transmission + Multi-Window Forecast (통합)
"Today cell → Next 1d propagation + Multi-window forward outcome"
측정 방법: 통합: 이전 Stage 7 (Transmission) + 10 (Cell Forecast)
측정 방법 (Captain 5/17 이해 쉽게 강화)
1. Hebbian Co-firing 측정: 32y 동안 cell A에 있던 날 → 다음 N일 후 cell B에 있는 빈도 누적
2. Synaptic Propagation Probability: P(B|A, N) = "cell A에서 N일 후 B로 이동할 확률"
3. 7 windows: 1d / 5d / 15d / 30d / 60d / 100d / 250d 별도 측정 (CD-31 multi-window 정합)
4. Captain 4/30 결정: "Markov는 그만 → Synaptic Transmission"
   Markov = memoryless transition matrix. Synaptic Transmission = biological propagation 본질
5. 본질 비유: 한 neuron의 action potential이 axon을 따라 → synapse → 다음 neuron 발화
   Cell A의 시장 phase 가 dominant synaptic pathway 따라 → 가장 확률 높은 cell B로 자연 전파

Today Cell → Next 1d Synaptic Propagation Network (Captain 5/18 재설계)

Today
DR4M
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION
streak 1d
→
#1
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4
75.9%
#2
CONSOLIDATION_sub0
19.0%
#3
STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub1
3.8%
#4
DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub3
1.3%

Multi-Window Forecast — Atlas SSOT cell forward outcome

11 windows × same-cell 32y forward outcome (Atlas SSOT)
• Source: phase3_3c_multiwindow_today.json · cell DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 · n_match 697
• SSOT reference: 2026-05-18 vs Today 2026-05-18 · current
• Method: same-cell historical occurrences → forward N-day return distribution
WindowTop 3 next cells (probability)
1dDEFENSIVE_ROTA (78%) / CONSOLIDATION_ (17%) / STRUCTURAL_BEA (3%)
5dDEFENSIVE_ROTA (64%) / CONSOLIDATION_ (18%) / STRUCTURAL_BEA (8%)
15dDEFENSIVE_ROTA (56%) / CONSOLIDATION_ (19%) / V_BOUNCE_RECOV (13%)
30dDEFENSIVE_ROTA (38%) / CONSOLIDATION_ (28%) / V_BOUNCE_RECOV (16%)
60dCONSOLIDATION_ (32%) / DEFENSIVE_ROTA (32%) / V_BOUNCE_RECOV (14%)
100dCONSOLIDATION_ (30%) / DEFENSIVE_ROTA (22%) / DEFENSIVE_ROTA (14%)
250dCYCLICAL_BULL_ (37%) / DEFENSIVE_ROTA (11%) / STRUCTURAL_BUL (10%)
Key Findings
# A · 제목 B · 디테일
(1) Today Synaptic Pathway DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 → 다음 1d Top 1 = DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 (75.9%). Self-loop = same cell stays (long persistence) · 다른 cell = imminent regime shift signal.
(2) Multi-Window Forecast 11 windows (1d ~ 250d) 각 horizon에서 별도 propagation probability. NPZ 26×26×11 matrix. Atlas SSOT cell DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 · n_match 697 stat 강한 baseline.
(3) Captain 4/30 비전 "Markov는 그만 → Synaptic Transmission" — biological propagation 본체. Action potential propagation through cell network (L3 Stage 8 Spreading 정합).
Stage 7 측정 방법 (click to expand)
Synaptic Transmission Matrix (Captain 4/30: Markov 폐기)
 • Captain 4/30 명령: "Markov는 그만 → Synaptic Transmission"
 • 7 time windows (1d/5d/15d/30d/60d/100d/250d)
 • 26×26 cell-to-cell synaptic propagation probability
 • Hebbian 본질: action potential propagation through cell network
Stage 7 종합 결론 (click to expand)
Today cell (DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4) → next 1d Top 5
  1. DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 — 75.9%
  2. CONSOLIDATION_sub0 — 19.0%
  3. STRUCTURAL_BEAR_sub1 — 3.8%
  4. DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub3 — 1.3%
→ 다음 cell synaptic propagation 확률 (다른 6 windows 별도 measurement)
7B 15 Assets Forward Outcome (same-cell 32y mean) 15 assets · 3 windows
15 Assets × Forward Outcome — Atlas SSOT same-cell historical
• Source: phase3_3c_15assets_forward_today.json · n_match 697 · cell DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4
• Method: 32y same-cell days × 15 assets × 3 windows (60d/180d/250d)
Asset60d mean60d pos%180d mean180d pos%250d mean250d pos%
SPY+3.3%81%+10.1%91%+11.6%85%
QQQ+3.7%77%+10.5%86%+12.0%85%
IWM+1.6%66%+6.9%74%+6.3%68%
DJI+3.0%76%+8.6%85%+9.6%84%
XLK+3.1%74%+9.2%86%+10.2%79%
XLF+1.7%68%+4.8%75%+2.3%63%
XLE+1.8%59%+12.0%80%+14.3%80%
XLV+2.6%79%+7.6%86%+8.7%81%
XLI+2.3%68%+7.7%77%+7.5%79%
XLC+0.5%67%+1.0%55%+1.9%54%
XLY+2.5%66%+7.0%72%+6.5%66%
XLP+1.9%70%+4.9%81%+5.2%79%
XLU+2.1%66%+5.0%71%+6.1%72%
XLRE-1.1%55%-1.7%36%-1.9%30%
XLB+2.3%71%+7.0%73%+6.3%75%
8 L5 Cell × L4 Bull Stage — 종합 결론 (Captain V1) DEFENSIVE_ROTATION × BULL_HIGH
Stage 8 = L5 Cell × L4 Bull Stage — 종합 결론 (Captain V1)
"L4+L5 결합 = ARIS 최종 진단"
측정 방법: 26 cells × 6 BP stages = 156 결합 진단 (Captain V1 비전)
L4 + L5 결합 = ARIS 최종 진단 (Captain V1 비전)
• L4 Bull Stage: BP K=6 BIC — BEAR_DEEP / BEAR_SIDE / NEUTRAL / BULL_MID / BULL_HIGH / BULL_TOP
• L5 Cell: K=26 BIC (Hebbian Emergent) — DEFENSIVE_ROTATION / CYCLICAL_BULL / STRUCTURAL_BEAR 등
• 결합 (Cell × Stage): 26 × 6 = 156 가능 진단 (시장 위치 + cycle phase)
• Captain V1: "Cell이 어디에 있는가 + Stage가 어디인가" 동시 = 본격 진단

Today — 결합 진단

L5 Cell DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 · ticker DR4M · source MAS_aam 40%
L4 Bull Stage BULL_HIGH · BP 0.5646 · L4 Verdict WEAK_BULL
결합 진단 Bull mature peak + Defensive rotation = mean reversion 압력 + sector rotation

결합 진단 Sample Matrix (Captain V1 본체 sample 8)

Cell Type Bull Stage 결합 진단
DEFENSIVE_ROTATIONBULL_HIGH/TOP Bull mature + Defensive rotation = mean reversion 압력
CYCLICAL_BULLBULL_HIGH/TOP Strong Bull continuation
CYCLICAL_BULLBULL_MID Mid-cycle Bull progress
DEFENSIVE_ROTATIONNEUTRAL/BEAR_SIDE Defensive rotation 본격
V_BOUNCE_RECOVERYBULL_MID Recovery 진행 본격
STRUCTURAL_BEARBEAR_SIDE/DEEP Bear continuation
CRISISBEAR_DEEP Capitulation phase
STAGFLATIONNEUTRAL Stagflation 정체 분기점

4-Layer Conclusion Stack

L3 SOMAHAFS — 시장 character snapshot
L4 5 DoctorsVote 종합 → WEAK_BULL
L5 Cell × StageDEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 × BULL_HIGH — Captain V1 본체 결론
UV (Unified)3-Layer 통합 forecast → Maturity Pullback → V-bounce 회복
Key Findings
# A · 제목 B · 디테일
(1) Today 결합 DEFENSIVE_ROTATION_sub4 + BULL_HIGH (BP 0.565) = 위 결합 진단. 156 가능 조합 중 today 위치.
(2) Captain V1 본체 의미 L4 (Stage) 또는 L5 (Cell) 단독 = 절반 진단 · 결합 = 시장 위치 + cycle phase 동시 catch. "Bull mature" vs "Bull mid" 의미 결합 시점에서만 명확.
(3) ARIS 4-Layer Conclusion L3 HAFS + L4 5 Doctors + L5 Cell × Stage (본 stage 핵심) + UV → 4-Layer 통합 결론. 본 stage = ARIS 최종 결론 본체 (Captain V1 비전).
Stage 8 측정 방법 (click to expand)
13 Source Codes (Captain V1 Source dominance)
 • M=MAS_aam · R=Rates · C=Credit · A=Macro · E=Energy
 • Q=Equity · O=Commodity · F=Forex · P=Positioning · V=Volatility
 • D=Defensive · L=Liquidity · G=Global · X=Mixed (no dominance)
 • Today source dominance: MAS_aam 40%
Stage 8 종합 결론 (click to expand)
Today Source 분석
→ Top category: MAS_aam 40%
→ Tag: dom (dom = clear single source dominance)
→ Captain V1 정합: "어떤 source가 시장을 driving하는가" 진단
L5 SOMA — SPRC (Cell K=26 BIC + Phase 3.5 v13) · Captain V1 본체 + CD-44/47/49 영구 · Built 2026-05-18 21:42 PDT